Blog

  • Weekly Market Commentary | Is the American Industrial Renaissance Real | April 27, 2026

    PRINTER FRIENDLY VERSION

    The “American Industrial Renaissance” is an investment theme investors and allocators alike have probably been pitched several times, or at the very least heard about. Supply chains for manufactured goods have evolved to become more complex, while U.S. manufacturing employment as a share of total employment has steadily declined, leaving policy makers to grapple with the ramifications of a shrinking manufacturing base. Facing effects ranging from structural employment shifts to fragile supply chains to national security, over the last decade, Washington has been both vocal and active about bringing manufacturing back stateside.

    This has left investors to explore if we’re actually seeing an “American Industrial Renaissance.” If so, what forces are driving it, and what economic indicators can

    Domestic Manufacturing Comeback: Renaissance or Rhetoric?

    The narrative of the “hollowing out” of American manufacturing is well-known, and perhaps just as well-known is the narrative around a coming “manufacturing renaissance” in the U.S. After four decades of globalization, manufacturing employment in the U.S. as a share of total employment has steadily decreased, from over 20% in 1980 to below 8% in 2025. The decline was driven by a trade shift in the 1980s followed by a productivity boom in the 1990s. Another major factor behind the shrinking manufacturing sector is the natural progression of economic development. As economies mature, growth increasingly shifts toward services, while agriculture and manufacturing account for smaller shares of overall activity.

    We’ve seen this across all major global economies. But that doesn’t mean the manufacturing sector loses importance over time, so let’s dig deeper into what a manufacturing renaissance would be like.

    While domestic manufacturers have faced competition from imports since as early as the 1970s, we key in on the 1980s as a marker for the start of the globalization and outsourcing trend due to several global macroeconomic shifts, including normalizing trade relations with China via “most favored nation” (MFN) tariff designation in 1980; the 1985 Plaza Accord driving Japanese supply chains to lower labor costs regions in Asia; and China’s own internal market reforms and the launching (and expanding) of special economic zones.

    China’s eventual admission into the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001 serves as an accelerator of the trend, rather than the start. The reduction in manufacturing employment hit certain regions of the U.S. harder than others, and this naturally led politicians representing these areas of the country (as well as presidential candidates seeking electoral votes from said states) to lament globalization and the jobs and livelihoods it “stole.” Catchy campaign slogans and unrealistic promises followed, reaching a crescendo with Donald Trump’s first election in 2016. However, we are primarily interested in the market and societal forces that could drive a meaningful return of U.S. manufacturing, and what indicators should we track to understand if this inflection is in fact taking place.

    Like rising literacy rates and the printing press pre-dating the Scientific Revolution, or coal-burning energy and the invention of the steam engine during the Industrial Revolution, every renaissance requires the convergence of multiple societal tailwinds. Hyperbole aside, if we are in fact experiencing an American industrial renaissance, we should be able to identify these societal forces converging. We have identified three such forces: 1) supply-chain resilience, 2) industrial policy with (mostly) bipartisan support, and 3) domestic energy production as a competitive advantage.

    Supply Chain Resilience, De-Globalization, and Reshoring

    Despite excitement around increased domestic industrial activity, global trade remains resilient, with imports compounding at about 5% annually over the last decade. However, the supply chain disruptions that surfaced during COVID-19, as well as continued geopolitical upheavals, have put a renewed focus on building greater resilience into supply chains and ensuring self-reliance for key high-value industries and materials.

    Investors should be careful not to confuse a selective industrial realignment with wholesale deglobalization. The broad data does not support a collapse in global trade, but underscores the fact that cross-border commerce remains highly connected. What we are seeing are specific shifts among trading partners and increased investment domestically. As shown in the “Imports from China Now Below ~9% as Mexico, Vietnam, and Taiwan Gain Share” chart below, U.S. concentration to Chinese imports has fallen materially, while Mexico, Vietnam, and Taiwan collectively have gained share in the same period. At the same time, annualized U.S. private manufacturing construction spending has surged from roughly $75 billion in early 2021 to roughly $200 billion by early 2026. Notably, shown in the Manufacturing Capacity in the U.S. Has Expanded for 51 Months Straight” chart below, manufacturing capacity in the U.S. has seen month-over-month increases for 51 straight months, going back to early 2022, with the largest contributions coming from computer products and electrical equipment. Although the improvement is significant, the sector has plenty of room to go before it reaches the production heights of the early 2000s. What is also noteworthy is the manufacturing of tech equipment in the 1980s and 1990s set the economy up for a massive regime shift in what and how we manufacture. We view all of these indicators as evidence that at least part of the realignment is moving beyond headlines and into physical domestic capacity formation, which warrants monitoring by investors to confirm (or deny) the American industrial renaissance thesis.

    That said, we do not intend to overstate the domestic content of the shift. Nearshoring improves resilience relative to China’s concentration, but it is not the same as a U.S. manufacturing renaissance, and some rerouting may still embed meaningful Chinese-origin content. The better way to define the opportunity is as a concentrated buildout in strategic sectors, such as computer and electronics, electrical equipment, and transportation (evidenced by 88% of 2024 reshoring jobs being in the tech space, per the Reshoring Initiatives 2024 Annual Report). However, we remain cautious of making any grand assumptions around manufacturing employment growth coinciding at a similar trend as spending growth due to the nature of modern high-tech manufacturing (greater use of autonomous processes and robotics), not to mention the minimal employment levels required to run a data center once construction is complete.

    Imports from China Now Below ~9% as Mexico, Vietnam, and Taiwan Gain Share

    Percent of imports from China, Mexico, Vietnam, and Taiwan, 2017-Trailing 12 Months to Feb 2026 (TTM)

    Source: LPL Research, Bloomberg, U.S. Census Bureau 04/21/26
    Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

    Manufacturing Capacity in the U.S. Has Expanded for 51 Months Straight

    U.S. manufacturing capacity and production, seasonally adjusted index (2017 = 100), Dec 2021 – Mar 2026

    Source: LPL Research, Bloomberg, U.S. Federal Reserve 04/21/26
    Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

    Policy Serving as a Tailwind to Renaissance

    The second identified force supporting the manufacturing renaissance theme is U.S. industrial policy. Proposals and promises for domestic industrial and infrastructure investment are frequently made by politicians on the campaign trail, so it is important to verify whether such proposals are showing up in the data. The last two presidential administrations seem to have had success with their respective policy programs, providing policy support for an American industrial renaissance that is unusually broad and durable.

    Biden-era subsidies, tax credits, and infrastructure appropriations created the demand signal, while Trump 2.0 tariffs and domestic-content pressure are raising the cost of producing offshore. While the two administrations’ means certainly differ, the ends are similar. And because the ends are similar, they enjoy broad bipartisan support (despite party-line congressional vote counts). The combination of each administration’s approach is more powerful than either tool alone, and it helps explain why U.S. manufacturing construction spending inflected so sharply after 2021, alongside massive monetary policy support. The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA), signed November 15, 2021, the August 2022-signed CHIPS (Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors) and Science Act, and the Inflation Reduction Act, signed August 16, 2022, together helped catalyze a visible step-up in domestic manufacturing construction.

    The second layer of support has come from a more protectionist trade regime. Starting with the January 20, 2025 “America First Trade Policy” memorandum, followed by expanded steel and aluminum tariffs, 25% tariffs on imported autos, and additional tariff actions and investigations across semiconductors, copper, and critical minerals, the policy mix has increasingly favored domestic production and North American supply chain localization. However, we note that while tariffs can support domestic volume and pricing, they also raise input costs for manufacturers that remain dependent on imported components. In other words, industrial policy is a tailwind for the build cycle, but not every industrial company is equally positioned to convert that tailwind into profit growth.

    Energy Independence as a Competitive Advantage

    The third and final structural force that is supportive of the American industrial renaissance is energy. Geopolitics, war, and trade disputes all contribute to this dynamic, and we won’t suggest it will last forever. But the fact remains that the U.S. has abundant natural gas resources and refining capacity, providing businesses with lower input costs relative to peer countries.

    Among the structural supports for an American industrial renaissance, energy may be the most tangible. The shale era gave U.S. industry a genuine input-cost advantage, as looking back over the last three years (excluding recent price spikes from the Iran war), the European premium to domestic natural gas averaged about 175%, while Japan/Korea liquid natural gas (LNG) prices averaged a premium of about 200%. Electricity tells a similar story, with EU industrial power prices for energy-intensive users still running at roughly twice U.S. levels in 2025. For energy-intensive industries (such as chemicals, steel, aluminum, fertilizers, and semiconductors), this is a real cost-of-production edge that supports the competitiveness of U.S.-based manufacturing.

    The important caveat is that this advantage may narrow at the margin as domestic demand rises. U.S. natural gas production hit record highs last year, but expanding LNG exports and rising electricity demand from data centers are beginning to tighten the domestic balance. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) sees Henry Hub rising to about $4.30/MMBtu in 2026, and some longer-range industry forecasts envision U.S. gas prices nearer $5/MMBtu in the early 2030s as export capacity and AI-related power demand grow. As for what the commodity markets are currently pricing in, the futures curve for their respective natural gas benchmarks shows the average premium for EU/Asia natural gas prices compared to domestic prices to compress from 175–200% to 20–70%. Therefore, we would not suggest that U.S. energy is going to be cheaper forever but has a meaningful cost advantage today (and a likely less meaningful but still present cost advantage in the near future), and domestic manufacturing companies benefit from that advantage relative to their foreign peers.

    U.S. Industry Benefits from Cheaper Energy, Net Energy Exporter Status

    Natural gas benchmark prices, U.S., Europe, and Japan (converted to USD / million Btu (MMBTU))

    Source: LPL Research, Bloomberg 04/20/26
    Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

    Conclusion

    Upon weighing the evidence, a strong argument can be made that an American manufacturing renaissance is underway, though we wouldn’t think of it as a wholesale reversal of globalization. The strongest evidence comes from rising domestic manufacturing construction, sustained capacity expansion, and policy frameworks that continue to encourage onshoring and investment in critical industries. Supply-chain resilience, industrial policy, and energy competitiveness together form a credible foundation for this shift, even if the benefits accrue unevenly across companies and are unlikely to translate into a proportional surge in manufacturing employment. For investors, the theme is compelling, but success may depend on implementation. Most importantly, successfully building exposure in portfolios will require distinguishing between companies with global industrial exposure and those most directly levered to domestic manufacturing, infrastructure, and power-related investment.

    Asset Allocation Insights

    Investors seeking focused exposure to the domestic manufacturing capital expenditures (capex) cycle should look toward selected individual companies in the industrials and materials sectors with high domestic revenue concentration and exposure to U.S. manufacturing, power, and grid investment or SMID-cap industrials and materials sector indexes/ETFs for the cleanest thematic exposure. The LPL Research Strategic and Tactical Asset Allocation Committee (STAAC) maintains a positive outlook on the industrials sector.

    LPL’s Strategic Tactical Asset Allocation Committee (STAAC) recently moved portfolios to a modest overweight in equities and an underweight in fixed income. This shift builds on positioning decisions implemented ahead of the recent rise in volatility. In our view, increased market uncertainty has improved the forward-looking risk‑reward for incremental equity exposure, allowing us to act within our established tactical framework while maintaining prudent risk controls.

    Within Growth with Income (GWI) portfolios — our closest proxy to a traditional 60/40 allocation — this adjustment reflects two related changes: neutralizing the underweight to U.S. small cap value and reducing exposure to MBS to fund that move. From a portfolio construction standpoint, this lifts equity exposure slightly above benchmark while keeping overall risk well within the intended tactical range. This reflects improved expected equity returns following market weakness, alongside a more cautious outlook for select areas of core fixed income. Within equity sectors, the STAAC holds a positive view on the industrials and technology sectors.

    Overall, our tactical views emphasize a modest equity overweight led by large‑cap growth, a continued focus on quality, caution in rate‑sensitive fixed income sectors, and an ongoing allocation to diversifying strategies and alternatives funded from cash.

    Tom Shipp, Head of Equity Research, LPL Financial

    Jeffrey J. Roach, Chief Economist, LPL Financial

    Disclosures

    This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change. ​

    References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. ​

    Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities. ​

    All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. ​

    All investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. ​

    US Treasuries may be considered “safe haven” investments but do carry some degree of risk including interest rate, credit, and market risk. Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price. ​

    The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

    The PE ratio (price-to-earnings ratio) is a measure of the price paid for a share relative to the annual net income or profit earned by the firm per share. It is a financial ratio used for valuation: a higher PE ratio means that investors are paying more for each unit of net income, so the stock is more expensive compared to one with lower PE ratio. ​

    Earnings per share (EPS) is the portion of a company’s profit allocated to each outstanding share of common stock. EPS serves as an indicator of a company’s profitability. Earnings per share is generally considered to be the single most important variable in determining a share’s price. It is also a major component used to calculate the price-to-earnings valuation ratio. ​

    Precious metal investing involves greater fluctuation and potential for losses.

    The fast price swings in commodities will result in significant volatility in an investor’s holdings. Commodities include increased risks, such as political, economic, and currency instability, and may not be suitable for all investors.​

    The NASDAQ Composite Index measures all NASDAQ domestic and non-U.S. based common stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. The market value, the last sale price multiplied by total shares outstanding, is calculated throughout the trading day, and is related to the total value of the Index. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.

    The MSCI US Broad Market Index captures broad U.S. equity coverage. The index includes 3,204 constituents across large, mid, small and micro capitalizations, about 99% of the U.S. equity universe. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.

    Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price. Private credit carries certain risks — illiquidity, opacity, borrower concentration, and bespoke structures — that distinguish it from corporate bonds and bank loans and complicate its evaluation and oversight.

    All index data from FactSet or Bloomberg.

    This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

    Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency | Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed | Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations | May Lose Value

    RES-0006894-0326 | For Public Use | Tracking #1098126  (Exp. 04/2027)

  • Weekly Market Performance | April 24, 2026

    LPL Research
    Last Updated: April 24, 2026

    LPL Research provides its Weekly Market Performance for the week of April 20, 2026. Markets experienced another volatile week amid busy Mideast headlines, rising oil prices, and a busy earnings calendar. U.S. equities managed to push to record highs late in the week, supported by artificial intelligence enthusiasm and broadly strong first-quarter earnings, while ceasefire hopes offset ongoing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz that pressured sentiment. International markets were more mixed, with Europe weighed down by higher crude prices and Asia supported by strength in technology shares. Meanwhile, Treasury yields rose, the dollar strengthened, and commodities bounced.

    Stock Index Performance

    Index Week-Ending One Month Year to Date
    S&P 500 0.50% 9.23% 4.62%
    Dow Jones Industrial -0.49% 6.68% 2.37%
    Nasdaq Composite 1.55% 14.18% 6.91%
    Russell 2000 0.49% 11.38% 12.44%
    MSCI EAFE -2.51% 6.75% 5.91%
    MSCI EM 0.13% 12.75% 16.48%

    S&P 500 Index Sectors

    Sector Week-Ending One Month Year to Date
    Materials 0.02% 7.66% 14.02%
    Utilities 0.14% 2.44% 8.27%
    Industrials -0.55% 5.19% 11.24%
    Consumer Staples 0.94% 2.85% 8.57%
    Real Estate -1.28% 8.83% 9.56%
    Health Care -3.04% -0.51% -6.90%
    Financials -1.86% 4.33% -6.09%
    Consumer Discretionary -0.18% 11.37% 1.50%
    Information Technology 3.13% 17.12% 8.00%
    Communication Services -0.63% 12.41% 5.37%
    Energy 2.77% -7.35% 26.03%

    Fixed Income and Commodities

    Indexes and Commodities Week-Ending One Month Year to Date
    Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate -0.40% 1.02% 0.43%
    Bloomberg Credit -0.35% 1.36% 0.42%
    Bloomberg Munis 0.03% 1.65% 1.31%
    Bloomberg High Yield -0.23% 1.86% 1.24%
    Oil 12.55% 2.19% 64.35%
    Natural Gas -5.87% -14.48% -31.71%
    Gold -2.27% 5.48% 9.29%
    Silver -5.58% 7.25% 6.58%

    Source: LPL Research, Bloomberg 4/24/26 @3:18 p.m. ET
    Disclosures: Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.

    U.S. and International Equities

    U.S. Equities:  Choppy trading on Wall Street continued for another week as headline noise remained in high supply and earnings season kicked into high gear. The Strait of Hormuz stalemate remained top of mind for investors, keeping a lid on equity markets as oil prices rose in response to the U.S. Navy reportedly seizing multiple Iranian vessels and tankers over the last five days while the peace talk path remained cloudy. Nonetheless, on the upside, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted record gains after President Trump extended the ceasefire and on upbeat artificial intelligence (AI) takeaways around a potential custom chip collaboration between Alphabet (GOOG/L) and Marvell (MRVL), along with Oracle (ORCL) expanding its partnership with the Google-parent company. The S&P 500 returned above the weekly unchanged point to end the week on renewed hopes that Washington and Tehran will return to the negotiating table in a potential weekend meeting.

    In earnings, first quarter results across corporate America continue to track a strong beat rate, featuring strong results for Boeing (BA) after delivering the most aircraft since 2019 last quarter, blowout results and guidance from chipmaker Intel Corp. (INTC), and better-than-expected earnings from UnitedHealth Group (UNH), General Electric (GE), and Northrop Grumman (NOC), to name a few.

    Also among highlights was the first Magnificent Seven report from Tesla (TSLA). The electric vehicle maker topped earnings estimates, but shares dropped on a spending plan hike aimed at supporting AI and robotics-related ambitions.

    International Equities: Across the pond, prolonged uncertainty in the Middle East and rising crude prices continued to weigh on European stocks. Cyclical pockets of the market underperformed amid developments around naval blockades in the Strait of Hormuz and weak economic data points — dragging travel, automotive, and banking shares to the bottom of the leaderboard as energy names rallied. Corporate news was also in focus with high-profile takeaways around the tech space. German software firm SAP posted healthy cloud backlog growth, which eased investor worries around AI disruption, while chip equipment maker ASML dropped in response to Taiwan Semiconductor stating it will hold off on using ASML’s latest chipmaking gear until 2029 to save money.

    Asian markets ended the week mixed with tech-leaning markets outperforming. Taiwan outperformed on the back of a Friday surge led by Taiwan Semiconductor after regulators eased single-stock fund holding limits, while South Korea also rallied on broad enthusiasm resulting from an earnings surge by chipmaker SK Hynix, and strong economic growth results. Meanwhile, Hong Kong was dragged down by tech shares on regulatory driven profit concerns and few directional drivers. Mainland China posted a moderate gain, while Japan’s tech-heavy Nikkei posted a healthy advance on support from INTC suppliers and technology broadly.

    Fixed Income, Currency, and Commodity Markets

    Fixed Income: Core bonds, measured by the Bloomberg Aggregate Index, traded lower on the week. Since the start of the Iran conflict, the 10-year Treasury yield has risen by more than 35 basis points, down from a peak increase of nearly 50 basis points through March 27. Elevated near-term inflation expectations and the pricing out of Fed rate cut expectations have been the primary drivers of higher yields. Interestingly, interest rate volatility (as measured by the MOVE index), after jumping sharply at the onset of the conflict, has fallen back below levels seen before the war began. Likewise, the Treasury term premium (the additional compensation investors require to hold longer-term Treasury securities) is only around its average level over the past year and well below recent highs.

    Falling interest rate volatility combined with a declining Treasury term premium typically signals a market environment characterized by increasing confidence in central bank policy, reduced recession fears, and improved market liquidity. Stated differently, this dynamic suggests that investors are requiring less compensation to hold long-term bonds because they perceive lower risks of extreme interest rate fluctuations or unexpected inflation shocks. As a result, given the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the depth and duration of the Iran conflict, markets may be underpricing upside risks to the 10-year Treasury yield. We remain neutral on duration relative to benchmarks.

    Commodities and Currencies: The broader commodities complex bounced back from last week’s drop with a strong gain over the last five days. Focus was little changed as oil prices remained in the spotlight. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude each rose well over 10% as the U.S. and Iran maintained blockades of the Strait of Hormuz, restricting crude exports and extending a historic energy supply shock. Uncertainties around U.S.-Iran negotiations and volatile rhetoric from both sides continued to support prices, with late-week reports of potential talks over the weekend doing little to ease upward pressure. Gasoline futures also surged this week, nearing four-year highs. Elsewhere, gold prices turned lower as a lack of concrete progress in the Mideast keeps inflation and global rate hike worries on the table. In currencies, the U.S. dollar strengthened as optimism of a near-term deal outweighed fears of a prolonged conflict and energy disruptions, while the yen and euro weakened against the greenback.

    Economic Weekly Roundup

    Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair nominee Kevin Warsh’s confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday was among the economic highlights this week. Among the key takeaways was his vow to remain independent and potentially restructure the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Plus, despite displaying his dislike for forward guidance, Warsh effectively offered forward guidance himself by arguing that AI-driven productivity could give the economy a boost to growth without inflation pressures. He clearly signaled future policy decisions based on a specific reason which is, by definition, forward guidance. Kevin Warsh’s confirmation hearing comes at a moment when U.S. monetary policy is already notably restrictive relative to most other advanced economies, sharpening the political and market sensitivity around the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next steps.

    Looking ahead at international markets, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at around 0.75% at the April 27–28 meeting, marking a likely third consecutive pause, as it assesses the economic impact of higher oil prices despite still accommodative real interest rates. The BOJ is expected to raise its 2026 fiscal year inflation forecast in the forthcoming Outlook Report, but policymakers remain cautious given volatile crude oil prices, Middle East geopolitical risks, and concerns about potential stagflation.

    The Week Ahead

    The following economic data is slated for the week ahead:

    • Monday: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (Apr)
    • Tuesday: ADP Weekly Employment Change (Apr 11), FHFA House Price Index (Feb), S&P Case-Shiller 20-City and National Home Price Index (Feb), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index and Business Conditions (Apr), Conference Board Consumer Confidence Report (Apr), Dallas Fed Services Activity (Apr)
    • Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications (Apr 24), Retail Inventories (Mar), Advance Goods Trade Balance (Mar), Wholesale Inventories (Mar preliminary), Housing Starts (Feb and Mar), Durable Goods Orders (Mar preliminary), Building Permits (Mar preliminary), Capital Goods Orders and Shipments (Mar preliminary), FOMC Rate Decision
    • Thursday: Personal Income and Spending (Mar), Headline and Core PCE Price Indexes (Mar), Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 25), Continuing Claims (Apr 18), Employment Cost Index (1Q), GDP Annualized (1Q first reading), Headline and Core GDP Price Index (1Q first reading), Personal Consumption (1Q first reading), MNI Chicago PMI (Apr), Leading Index (Mar)
    • Friday: S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Apr final), ISM Manufacturing Index (Apr), Wards Total Vehicle Sales (Apr)

    Important Disclosures

    This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, please consult your financial professional prior to investing.

    Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk.

    Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and does not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

    This material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

    Unless otherwise stated LPL Financial and the third party persons and firms mentioned are not affiliates of each other and make no representation with respect to each other. Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services.

    Asset Class Disclosures –

    International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.

    Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity.

    Municipal bonds are subject and market and interest rate risk and potentially capital gains tax if sold prior to maturity. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Municipal bonds are federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply.

    Preferred stock dividends are paid at the discretion of the issuing company. Preferred stocks are subject to interest rate and credit risk. They may be subject to a call features.

    Alternative investments may not be suitable for all investors and involve special risks such as leveraging the investment, potential adverse market forces, regulatory changes and potentially illiquidity. The strategies employed in the management of alternative investments may accelerate the velocity of potential losses.

    Mortgage backed securities are subject to credit, default, prepayment, extension, market and interest rate risk.

    High yield/junk bonds (grade BB or below) are below investment grade securities, and are subject to higher interest rate, credit, and liquidity risks than those graded BBB and above. They generally should be part of a diversified portfolio for sophisticated investors.

    Precious metal investing involves greater fluctuation and potential for losses.

    The fast price swings of commodities will result in significant volatility in an investor’s holdings.

    This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

    Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency | Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations | Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed | May Lose Value

    For Public Use – Tracking: #1094483

  • IPOs in 2026: Risks, Returns, and Timing

    How To Think About IPOs in 2026

    Thomas Shipp | Head of Equity Research
    Last Updated: April 23, 2026

    Additional content provided by Tucker Beale, Sr. Analyst, Research.

    With several high-profile initial public offerings (IPOs) expected in 2026, many investors may be wondering whether buying a stock on its first day of trading is a smart move. Historically, stock performance in the first year post-IPO has been a mixed bag of volatility, with a large minority delivering excess returns in their first year of trading, while a slight majority deliver negative returns. In today’s blog, we analyze data on 30 years of selected IPOs and highlight some recent changes that will likely impact some of the coming year’s largest expected new issues.

    Starting with the data, we pulled IPOs from the last 30 years that have traded for at least one year, thus approximately April 1995 to April 2025. We filtered the dataset to only include issuances on the NYSE or Nasdaq exchanges and set a floor on the capital raised in the IPO to $50 million. Finally, we included only IPOs of common stocks, excluding REITs, Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs), and other non-common equity issues. This left us with about 1,500 IPOs over the sample period (1,494 to be exact) that offered up over $600 billion in equity ownership for new issues.

    As for performance, we started with a one-year time horizon from the closing price of the first day of trading. We chose the closing price instead of the offer price because ordinary investors rarely have access to the offer price, as the investment banks often allocate much of the shares they have underwritten to large institutional investors. One can quibble with the rationale here, but given typical volatility on the first day an IPO trades, this approach made the most sense. Getting into the findings, starting with one-year price-based returns from the closing price of the first day of trading, the average return generated was 10.5%. You may be thinking that’s not too bad, about in line with equity market expectations. However, averages in this analysis introduce an upward bias, as hypothetically there is no ceiling on the positive returns, but a floor on the losses, as the most an unleveraged investor can lose on an investment is 100%. The range of outcomes in this dataset is very large, and dispersion (volatility) is high; the standard deviation of the one-year returns is 107%. When we measure the median return of the sample, we get a more realistic picture of the potential outcome, a negative return of -4.7%. Interestingly, the middle 50% of outcomes in the distribution are pretty evenly distributed, with the bottom 25th percentile landing at -38.9%, and the top 25th percentile coming in at 36.2%. In terms of a simple distribution of the percentage of IPOs that generated positive returns in their first year of trading compared to those that produced negative returns, the split was relatively close, with the percent positive (46.1% of the sample, producing an average return of 68.7%) slightly below the percent negative (53.9% of the sample, producing an average return of -39.2%). So slightly skewed to the downside, with a very wide distribution of outcomes in the tails.

    The large standard deviation tells the story of the variation of outcomes at the finish line, but what about the journey to get there? For that, we calculated the maximum drawdown experienced in the first year of trading for every IPO in our sample. The average drawdown experienced was -48.9%, and the distribution for this dataset was much less volatile than the average one-year return, with the median drawdown coming in at -48%, with a standard deviation of 22%. Said another way, while the variation of outcomes was wide, the variation in the journey was much more similar; that is, it was typically a pretty volatile ride regardless of the ending outcome.

    One final bit of data analysis we took on was comparing the one-year returns of the IPO data set to the returns of the S&P 500 based on each IPO’s one-year return window. This allowed us to somewhat normalize the outcomes based on how the broad market performed in the year. We get a slightly more negative outcome, with the average difference in performance coming in at 2.4%, with the median performance difference coming in at -12.5%. The volatility in the distribution was similar, as would be expected. The percentage of IPOs that outperformed the S&P 500 was slightly below the percentage that produced positive returns, with just 40.6% producing one-year returns above the S&P 500 during the first year of trading, while 59.4% underperformed. Finally, in terms of drawdowns, only 6.7% of IPOs in the sample (56 total) experienced a less severe drawdown than the S&P 500 during the one-year period. Diversification does its job yet again.

    Understanding why these outcomes occur can help investors avoid common pitfalls and better time entry into newly public companies. IPOs have historically had a few things working against them. First, both management and the investment bank or banks involved in the IPO have a vested interest in maximizing the company’s valuation. Whether driven by hopes and dreams or strong fundamentals, higher valuations imply a higher hurdle for future earnings to keep investors excited and engaged. Taking a private company public also creates a liquidity event for existing shareholders. Insider ownership stakes may be sold on the exchanges after a pre-determined lockup period, which adds to expected selling pressure post-IPO. Compounding all of this from the perspective of retail investors is limited access to the initial offering price. The benefit of any pop in price during the initial hours of trading generally accrues to institutional investors that received allocations from the underwriting investment bank(s).

    While these historical patterns are important, they may not be a perfect guide for the upcoming wave of large IPOs. Structural changes in how indexes handle new listings could alter the typical post‑IPO experience.

    IPOs also traditionally face hurdles for index inclusion. These requirements vary across indexes but generally include float minimums and a minimum amount of time trading on the exchanges for “seasoning” to ensure stability and liquidity requirements are met. This seasoning period delays the mechanical buying associated with index inclusion when passive funds are forced to buy to mimic the index. In response to heavy lobbying from management teams at large private companies expected to IPO this year, index providers are loosening constraints to speed up index inclusion under the guise of ensuring indexes “are more representative of the U.S. equity market sooner” (FTSE Russell Market Consultation, February 2026).

    The takeaway for investors is not to avoid IPOs altogether, but to approach them thoughtfully. As seen in the analysis of 30 years of IPO data, there have been a wide range of outcomes, with some massive home runs driving up the average returns, and many strike outs pulling the median measure of one-year returns lower. We suggest investors proceed with any IPO investment with caution and expect to experience a great deal of volatility.

    LPL Financial prohibits the purchase of equity IPOs within client accounts.

    Important Disclosures

    This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, please consult your financial professional prior to investing.

    Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk.

    Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and does not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

    This material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

    Unless otherwise stated LPL Financial and the third party persons and firms mentioned are not affiliates of each other and make no representation with respect to each other. Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services.

    Asset Class Disclosures –

    International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.

    Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity.

    Municipal bonds are subject and market and interest rate risk and potentially capital gains tax if sold prior to maturity. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Municipal bonds are federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply.

    Preferred stock dividends are paid at the discretion of the issuing company. Preferred stocks are subject to interest rate and credit risk. They may be subject to a call features.

    Alternative investments may not be suitable for all investors and involve special risks such as leveraging the investment, potential adverse market forces, regulatory changes and potentially illiquidity. The strategies employed in the management of alternative investments may accelerate the velocity of potential losses.

    Mortgage backed securities are subject to credit, default, prepayment, extension, market and interest rate risk.

    High yield/junk bonds (grade BB or below) are below investment grade securities, and are subject to higher interest rate, credit, and liquidity risks than those graded BBB and above. They generally should be part of a diversified portfolio for sophisticated investors.

    Precious metal investing involves greater fluctuation and potential for losses.

    The fast price swings of commodities will result in significant volatility in an investor’s holdings.

    This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

    Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency | Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations | Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed | May Lose Value

    For Public Use – Tracking: #1097686

  • The Fed Will Likely Get a New Chair

    Seven Takeaways from Warsh Confirmation Hearing

    Dr. Jeffrey Roach | Chief Economist
    Last Updated: April 22, 2026

    Kevin Warsh’s bid to become the next chair of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) unfolded amid sharp political tension, legal uncertainty, and pointed questions about his independence from President Trump. During a combative Senate confirmation hearing, Warsh sought to reassure lawmakers that he would not allow political pressure to dictate monetary policy, even as unresolved Justice Department investigation into current Chair Jerome Powell threatens to delay his confirmation and underscores broader concerns about the politicization of the central bank.

    Kevin Warsh’s confirmation hearing comes at a moment when U.S. monetary policy is already notably restrictive relative to most other advanced economies, sharpening the political and market sensitivity around the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next steps.

    U.S. Policy Rate Highest Among the G-7

    This line chart provides the policy rates for members of the G-7 from 1987 to the present day.

    Source: LPL Research, Bank of Canada, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve Board, 04/22/26

    As of April 21, 2026, the Fed’s target range for the federal funds rate stands at 3.50% to 3.75%, well above policy rates at many peer central banks, including the European Central Bank’s 2.15% policy rate, the Bank of England’s 3.75% Bank Rate, the Bank of Canada’s 2.25% overnight rate, and the Bank of Japan’s 0.75% policy rate. That gap has become central to the political debate surrounding Warsh’s nomination, with President Trump arguing that U.S. rates should be “the lowest in the world,” even as global counterparts face different inflation dynamics, energy shocks tied to Middle East tensions, and divergent growth outlooks. Against this backdrop, lawmakers used the hearing to test whether Warsh would prioritize narrowing the international rate divergence through faster U.S. easing — or adhere to the Fed’s traditionally data-driven approach despite mounting external and political pressure.

    Here are 7 Key Takeaways

    1. Warsh Emphasizes Fed Independence
    Warsh repeatedly stated that he would not cut interest rates at President Trump’s behest, insisting that Trump never asked him to pre-commit to any specific policy actions and pledging to remain “strictly independent” if confirmed.

    2. Political Pressure on the Fed Is Intensifying
    Lawmakers highlighted that Trump’s actions have gone beyond rhetoric, including an effort to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook and a Department of Justice (DOJ) investigation into Powell, both of which have raised alarms about threats to institutional independence.

    3. DOJ Investigation Could Delay Confirmation
    A criminal investigation into Powell’s handling of the Fed’s headquarters renovation has become a procedural roadblock, as Senator Thom Tillis has vowed to block Warsh’s confirmation until the probe is resolved.

    4. Powell Could Remain Chair Temporarily
    If Warsh is not confirmed by May 15, Powell has said he would continue serving as chair on an interim basis, adding uncertainty to the Fed’s leadership at a sensitive time for monetary policy.

    5. Scrutiny of Warsh’s Shift on Inflation and Rates
    Democrats pressed Warsh on his evolution from an inflation hawk during his previous tenure at the Fed to a recent advocate for rate cuts, a shift he justified by pointing to balance sheet reduction and potential productivity gains from artificial intelligence.

    6. Criticism of Fed Policy Framework and Communication
    Warsh argued that persistent inflation overshoots reflect Fed policy errors during 2021–2022 and called for “regime change,” including a new inflation framework and less forward guidance such as scaling back the Fed’s “dot plot.”

    7. Personal Wealth and Financial Conflicts Raised Concerns
    Senators, particularly Elizabeth Warren, questioned Warsh about his substantial personal wealth and opaque investment holdings. Warsh pledged to divest all financial assets and move to “plain vanilla” investments if confirmed.

    Bottom Line

    Warsh’s confirmation hearing underscored how deeply debates over Fed independence, inflation credibility, and political influence have become entangled. Even as he sought to project autonomy and a reform-oriented vision for monetary policy, unresolved legal investigations and partisan tensions threaten to delay his path to confirmation. The outcome may not only determine Warsh’s future but also shape how markets and the public perceive the Fed’s ability to operate independently in an increasingly politicized environment. As it relates to interest rate expectations, the hearing strengthens the view that Warsh may tighten conditions via balance sheet normalization while simultaneously loosening conditions by lowering interest rates. These actions may not occur until much later this year as conditions warrant.

    Important Disclosures

    This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, please consult your financial professional prior to investing.

    Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk.

    Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and does not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

    This material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

    Unless otherwise stated LPL Financial and the third party persons and firms mentioned are not affiliates of each other and make no representation with respect to each other. Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services.

    Asset Class Disclosures –

    International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.

    Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity.

    Municipal bonds are subject and market and interest rate risk and potentially capital gains tax if sold prior to maturity. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Municipal bonds are federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply.

    Preferred stock dividends are paid at the discretion of the issuing company. Preferred stocks are subject to interest rate and credit risk. They may be subject to a call features.

    Alternative investments may not be suitable for all investors and involve special risks such as leveraging the investment, potential adverse market forces, regulatory changes and potentially illiquidity. The strategies employed in the management of alternative investments may accelerate the velocity of potential losses.

    Mortgage backed securities are subject to credit, default, prepayment, extension, market and interest rate risk.

    High yield/junk bonds (grade BB or below) are below investment grade securities, and are subject to higher interest rate, credit, and liquidity risks than those graded BBB and above. They generally should be part of a diversified portfolio for sophisticated investors.

    Precious metal investing involves greater fluctuation and potential for losses.

    The fast price swings of commodities will result in significant volatility in an investor’s holdings.

    This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

    Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency | Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations | Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed | May Lose Value

    For Public Use – Tracking: #1094469

  • Is Investor Confidence in Treasuries Fading?

    LPL Research examines whether rising U.S. debt threatens Treasuries’ safe-haven status, and why investor demand remains resilient.

    Lawrence Gillum | Chief Fixed Income Strategist
    Last Updated: April 21, 2026

    Concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy have moved back into the investment spotlight. Over the past week, both multilateral institutions and prominent policymakers have raised warnings about the potential implications of America’s expanding debt burden for Treasury markets. While these concerns are directionally valid, we believe recent calls suggesting a structural loss of appeal for U.S. Treasuries are premature and risk overstating near-term risks.

    Rising Debt Issuance and the IMF’s Warning

    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cautioned last week that the accelerating pace of U.S. Treasury issuance may be eroding the premium traditionally afforded to U.S. government securities. As evidence, the IMF pointed to a narrowing spread between yields on AAA-rated corporate bonds and U.S. Treasuries, implying diminished relative demand for sovereign debt.

    Separately, former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson echoed these concerns, suggesting U.S. authorities should prepare contingency plans to address a potential future collapse in Treasury demand driven by investor anxiety over the federal debt trajectory.

    There is little debate that U.S. debt dynamics are troubling. Deficits remain large, interest costs are rising, and issuance is likely to continue at elevated levels. However, extrapolating these concerns into a near-term loss of Treasury market credibility or safe-haven status is, in our view, a step too far.

    Treasury Yields: Elevated, But Not Abnormal

    A basic starting point is the level of Treasury yields themselves. At roughly 4.25%, the 10-year Treasury yield sits close to its long-run historical norm. Since 1880, the 10-year yield has generally oscillated within a roughly 3–5% range, with notable deviations only during distinct monetary regimes: the inflationary excesses of the 1970s and early 1980s, followed by the structurally depressed yields of the post–Global Financial Crisis zero-interest-rate era.

    Seen through this longer historical lens, today’s yield levels do not signal investor capitulation or an extraordinary risk premium tied to fiscal fears. Instead, they reflect normalization from an unusually suppressed rate environment.

    Historically, 3–5% Has Been “Normal”

    This line chart provides the 10-year Treasury Yield from 1880 to the present day.

    Source: LPL Research, Bloomberg 04/20/26
    Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

    Corporate Spreads and a Misleading Comparison

    The IMF’s focus on the narrowing spread between AAA-rated corporates and Treasuries deserves closer scrutiny. As we discussed in our October 2025 Rate and Credit View, “Can Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds be the New Risk-Free Asset?, tight investment-grade spreads are largely a function of elevated all-in yields and persistent institutional demand for income-producing assets. Many large buyers — insurance companies, pensions, and asset managers — are focused less on spread levels and more on total yield and balance sheet efficiency.

    Moreover, the comparison itself is imperfect. There are currently only two AAA-rated corporate issuers remaining, making broad conclusions based on this cohort somewhat “apples to oranges.” The scarcity value of top-rated corporate paper, combined with structural demand from liability-driven investors, has compressed spreads independently of Treasury supply dynamics.

    Auction Performance and Foreign Demand

    It is also worth separating “less-than-stellar” Treasury auctions from outright dysfunction. Recent auctions have occasionally been soft at the margin, but coverage ratios and bid-to-cover metrics do not suggest a market that is failing to clear. Importantly, Treasury International Capital (TIC) data released last week showed that foreign demand for U.S. Treasury securities remains robust, undermining the argument that global investors are meaningfully turning away from U.S. government debt. In periods of genuine loss of confidence, foreign official and private-sector demand would be expected to decline sharply. That is not what the data currently shows.

    Acknowledging the Long-Term Risk — Without Overreacting

    None of this is meant to dismiss the broader concerns surrounding U.S. fiscal sustainability. The trajectory of deficit spending and debt accumulation is unsustainable over the long run, and higher issuance will continue to exert upward pressure on term premiums over time.

    However, structural risk and imminent crisis are not the same thing. Treasuries continue to function as the global risk-free asset, anchoring pricing across capital markets and serving as the foundational collateral of the global financial system. That status does not disappear simply because supply is rising.

    The Bottom Line: It’s About Price, Not Viability

    Despite a growing mountain of debt and rising interest costs, the U.S. government is not on the brink of financial collapse, nor is the Treasury market at risk of losing its haven status in any fundamental sense. As long as Treasuries are treated as risk-free assets — legally, institutionally, and operationally — there will be buyers, and deficits will be financed.

    The more relevant question is not whether Treasuries will be bought, but at what price. To date, the evidence suggests that investors have not balked at current prices. Concerns about U.S. debt are real, and deserve attention — but declarations of the end of Treasury exceptionalism remain, for now, exaggerated, in our view.

    As well, despite the ongoing conflict in Iran, market-based indicators do not currently suggest rising stress in the Treasury market. Interest rate volatility, as measured by the MOVE index, spiked sharply at the onset of the conflict but has since retreated to levels below those observed prior to the war. Similarly, the Treasury term premium — the additional compensation investors demand to hold longer‑dated Treasury securities — is hovering near its average level over the past year and remains well below recent highs.

    Historically, the combination of declining interest rate volatility and a subdued term premium is consistent with a market environment characterized by increasing confidence in central bank policy, diminished recession risks, and adequate market liquidity. Put differently, investors are currently requiring less compensation to hold long‑term Treasuries because they perceive a lower probability of extreme rate volatility or sustained inflation surprises.

    All that said, given the considerable uncertainty surrounding the depth, duration, and potential spillover effects of the Iran conflict, markets may be underpricing upside risks to the 10‑year Treasury yield. As a result, while Treasuries continue to function as a core portfolio anchor, we remain neutral on duration relative to benchmarks.

    Important Disclosures

    This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, please consult your financial professional prior to investing.

    Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk.

    Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and does not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

    This material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

    Unless otherwise stated LPL Financial and the third party persons and firms mentioned are not affiliates of each other and make no representation with respect to each other. Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services.

    Asset Class Disclosures –

    International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.

    Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity.

    Municipal bonds are subject and market and interest rate risk and potentially capital gains tax if sold prior to maturity. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Municipal bonds are federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply.

    Preferred stock dividends are paid at the discretion of the issuing company. Preferred stocks are subject to interest rate and credit risk. They may be subject to a call features.

    Alternative investments may not be suitable for all investors and involve special risks such as leveraging the investment, potential adverse market forces, regulatory changes and potentially illiquidity. The strategies employed in the management of alternative investments may accelerate the velocity of potential losses.

    Mortgage backed securities are subject to credit, default, prepayment, extension, market and interest rate risk.

    High yield/junk bonds (grade BB or below) are below investment grade securities, and are subject to higher interest rate, credit, and liquidity risks than those graded BBB and above. They generally should be part of a diversified portfolio for sophisticated investors.

    Precious metal investing involves greater fluctuation and potential for losses.

    The fast price swings of commodities will result in significant volatility in an investor’s holdings.

    This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

    Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency | Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations | Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed | May Lose Value

    For Public Use – Tracking: #1094468

  • Weekly Market Performance | April 17, 2026

    LPL Research
    Last Updated: April 17, 2026

    LPL Research provides its Weekly Market Performance for the week of April 13, 2026. Markets posted a strong weekly advance as easing geopolitical tensions, solid earnings reports, and better-than-expected inflation signals fueled a risk-on tone. U.S. equities notched record highs on optimism around Middle East ceasefire developments and abating energy supply concerns, alongside upbeat artificial intelligence (AI) related takeaways. International equities were boosted by the same dynamics, broadly, while Treasury yields fell alongside crude oil prices. Commodities were mixed, with oil prices weighing on benchmarks for the complex, while gold gained ground.

    Stock Index Performance

    Index Week-Ending One Month Year to Date
    S&P 500 4.47% 6.04% 4.03%
    Dow Jones Industrial 3.14% 5.17% 2.83%
    Nasdaq Composite 6.55% 8.56% 5.00%
    Russell 2000 5.42% 10.05% 11.74%
    MSCI EAFE 2.07% 6.03% 8.61%
    MSCI EM 4.93% 8.16% 16.15%

    S&P 500 Index Sectors

    Sector Week-Ending One Month Year to Date
    Materials -0.18% 5.46% 14.23%
    Utilities -1.74% -1.49% 8.07%
    Industrials 1.23% 4.55% 11.93%
    Consumer Staples -0.15% -1.96% 7.44%
    Real Estate 3.81% 4.63% 10.94%
    Health Care 0.75% -0.42% -4.12%
    Financials 3.34% 6.31% -4.24%
    Consumer Discretionary 6.66% 8.09% 1.72%
    Information Technology 7.69% 10.09% 4.34%
    Communication Services 5.99% 7.23% 5.75%
    Energy -3.36% -5.55% 22.85%

    Fixed Income and Commodities

    Indexes and Commodities Week-Ending One Month Year to Date
    Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate 0.17% 0.06% 0.46%
    Bloomberg Credit 0.23% 0.57% 0.34%
    Bloomberg Munis 0.11% 0.12% 1.07%
    Bloomberg High Yield 0.39% 1.26% 1.20%
    Oil -12.43% -12.10% 47.28%
    Natural Gas 1.06% -11.77% -27.40%
    Gold 2.23% -3.00% 12.41%
    Silver 7.22% 2.61% 13.53%

    Source: LPL Research, Bloomberg 4/17/26 @3:13 p.m. ET
    Disclosures: Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.

    U.S. and International Equities

    U.S. Equities: Contrary to the popular saying, good things came in threes this week as the S&P 500 put together three straight record highs on its way to a third straight weekly 3%+ weekly advance, broadly on the back of upbeat geopolitical takeaways. Stocks quickly shrugged off U.S.-Iran talks over the weekend that failed to yield a resolution, running with a positive spin on Monday’s developments around Washington seeking a second round of negotiations. Reports of both sides mulling a ceasefire extension helped the equity benchmark punch back through the 7,000-point mark before the White House and Tehran agreed in-principle to extend the temporary truce and Israel and Lebanon secured a ceasefire agreement. Both agreements drove equities to build on gains before accelerating Friday after Iran reportedly made key concessions around giving up its enriched uranium stockpile and “fully reopening” the Strait of Hormuz for the duration of the ceasefire.

    Market chatter also continued to surround positive positioning and flow dynamics, while cooler-than-expected wholesale inflation results were also among constructive talking points. Meanwhile, earnings season kicked off with America’s largest financial institutions delivering first quarter results over the last five days. Among those besting Wall Street’s earnings forecasts were JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), Bank of America (BAC), Citi (C), and PNC (PNC), with key takeaways around strong loan growth and improving credit quality. Mostly higher big tech and index heavyweights were supportive amid bright artificial intelligence (AI) headlines, while a big bounce in recently beaten down software names also helped propel the tech sector to the top of the weekly leaderboard.

    International Equities: European markets also traded with U.S.-Iran geopolitics on center stage for the STOXX 600’s weekly advance. The upbeat takeaways around the Persian Gulf easily overshadowed the region’s own earnings season kick off with investors sniffing for signals of how the Iran conflict may affect estimates and commentary. Luxury names led off reports with Paris-based luxury conglomerate LVMH missing revenue expectations while fellow French luxury designer Hermes offered weak first quarter sales. Elsewhere, a beat and raise from Dutch chip equipment maker ASML failed to excite investors. Outside of earnings, U.K. shares lagged to end the week on political uncertainty surrounding Prime Minister Starmer potentially misleading Parliament in a 2024 U.S. ambassador appointment.

    The Asia-Pacific region also gained ground, with tech enthusiasm driving gains for outperformers. South Korea added over 5.5%, boosted by positive AI takeaways from around the globe, as well as macro data revealing a jump in April exports thanks to semiconductors. Taiwan outperformed with some support from Taiwan Semiconductor earnings takeaways, while Japan’s tech-heavy Nikkei outpaced the Topix, with the latter still facing a headwind from exporter names and chatter around yen levels before later week currency strength. In greater China, news of fresh AI models and quantum computing headlines aided risk appetite, alongside better-than-expected first quarter economic growth.

    Fixed Income, Currency, and Commodity Markets

    Fixed Income: Core bonds, measured by the Bloomberg Aggregate Index, traded higher this week on upbeat geopolitical takeaways and Friday’s slide in crude oil prices, sending Treasury yields lower. Falling Treasury yields also placed corporate credit markets into focus as after widening to their highest levels since last April, spreads across both investment grade (IG) and high yield (HY) markets have retraced meaningfully, returning to more compressed levels as volatility has subsided. The combination of tighter spreads and the recent decline in Treasury yields has reduced all-in borrowing costs for issuers — particularly for higher-quality IG borrowers — prompting a wave of issuance that had been deferred after the Iran conflict temporarily sidelined primary market activity. For the week of April 6, gross issuance was roughly 20% higher than last year’s already elevated pace and despite the heavy supply calendar, investor demand has remained robust and new deals were oversubscribed.

    Within this supply surge, issuance from so-called AI hyperscalers has been particularly notable. Of the $673 billion issued year to date, roughly $93 billion has come from this cohort as they continue to fund large-scale capital expenditures related to data centers, cloud infrastructure, and AI compute. Hyperscalers  growing presence, especially in longer-dated maturities, has materially increased their weight in high-quality long-end indexes, rising from approximately 12% in 1H25 to roughly 14% currently. At the issuer level, spreads have widened for tech companies. Although macro-driven risk events have played a role, the sustained wave of supply since last September has been a key technical driver.

    Taken together, the backdrop remains one of strong demand absorbing elevated supply, but issuer-specific technicals — particularly among large, frequent hyperscaler borrowers — are increasingly shaping relative spread performance across the corporate credit landscape.

    Commodities and Currencies: The broader commodities complex retreated Friday, reversing week-to-date gains on volatile crude prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil succumbed to downside pressure amid a steady stream of de-escalation headlines from the Mideast, sinking on Friday in response to Iran’s announcement that the Strait of Hormuz is “completely open,” easing concerns around a prolonged energy supply shortage. Remarks from Washington around Iran surrendering its uranium stockpile added to decreasing geopolitical risks, but oil prices remained floored due to Iran warning against a continued U.S. naval blockade of the waterway and, despite the reopening of the Strait, a world that must wait for energy shipments to arrive. Elsewhere, gold prices jumped to end the week on hopes that a stable U.S.-Iran agreement may reduce inflationary pressures and limit the need for tighter monetary policy from central banks — a positive for the non-yielding yellow metal. In currencies, the U.S. dollar weakened for the second straight week on easing tensions in the Persian Gulf and traders nearly doubling bets on a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut this year, while other major currencies such as the yen and euro strengthened against the greenback.

    Economic Weekly Roundup

    U.S. wholesale prices highlighted a relatively light economic calendar, arriving cooler than expected for the month of March, based on Producer Price Index (PPI) data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Headline figures roughly matched a 0.5% increase in prices indicated by revised February data, with energy easily contributing the most amid the bottleneck in the Strait of Hormuz, while services and goods inflation eased from the previous month. Increases in core wholesale prices, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, dropped to just 0.1% last month.

    On an annual basis, however, producer prices rose to 4.0% from 3.4% a year prior. Surging oil and gasoline prices were the natural culprit, and warrants continued attention in the April report, but the modest rise was smaller than markets expected. On another note, Wall Street continues to monitor data for visibility on how companies are passing tariff-related effects on to consumers, and trade service costs (a general proxy for profit margins) dropped for the second straight month in March after rising in December and January.

    The Week Ahead

    The following economic data is slated for the week ahead:

    • Monday: No economic releases scheduled
    • Tuesday: ADP Weekly Employment Change (Apr 4), Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity (Apr), Retail Sales (Mar), Business Inventories (Feb), Pending Home Sales (Mar)
    • Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications (Apr 17)
    • Thursday: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Mar), Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 18), Continuing Claims (Apr 11), S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMIs (Apr preliminary), Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity (Apr)
    • Friday: University of Michigan Sentiment Consumer Sentiment Report (Apr final), Kansas City Fed Services Activity (Apr), Bloomberg U.S. Economic Survey (Apr)

    Important Disclosures

    This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, please consult your financial professional prior to investing.

    Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk.

    Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and does not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

    This material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

    Unless otherwise stated LPL Financial and the third party persons and firms mentioned are not affiliates of each other and make no representation with respect to each other. Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services.

    Asset Class Disclosures –

    International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.

    Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity.

    Municipal bonds are subject and market and interest rate risk and potentially capital gains tax if sold prior to maturity. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Municipal bonds are federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply.

    Preferred stock dividends are paid at the discretion of the issuing company. Preferred stocks are subject to interest rate and credit risk. They may be subject to a call features.

    Alternative investments may not be suitable for all investors and involve special risks such as leveraging the investment, potential adverse market forces, regulatory changes and potentially illiquidity. The strategies employed in the management of alternative investments may accelerate the velocity of potential losses.

    Mortgage backed securities are subject to credit, default, prepayment, extension, market and interest rate risk.

    High yield/junk bonds (grade BB or below) are below investment grade securities, and are subject to higher interest rate, credit, and liquidity risks than those graded BBB and above. They generally should be part of a diversified portfolio for sophisticated investors.

    Precious metal investing involves greater fluctuation and potential for losses.

    The fast price swings of commodities will result in significant volatility in an investor’s holdings.

    This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

    Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency | Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations | Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed | May Lose Value

    For Public Use – Tracking: #1090754

  • Tactical Positioning: From Preparation to Action

    Tactical Positioning Update: From Preparation to Action

    George Smith | Portfolio Strategist
    Last Updated: April 16, 2026

    Over the past year, LPL Research’s Strategic and Tactical Asset Allocation Committee (STAAC) has emphasized that tactical investing does not require constant activity. Instead, it requires preparation, patience, and the discipline to act only when the expected benefit of a change clearly outweighs the risks. We have made some changes to our Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA) guidance but continue to reflect that disciplined philosophy.

    STAAC has updated our TAA to move portfolios to modestly overweight equities and underweight fixed income. Importantly, this adjustment builds on positioning decisions made well before volatility increased, rather than reacting to market stress after the fact. In our view, the recent increase in volatility has improved the prospective risk‑reward for taking incremental equity risk, allowing us to translate preparation into action while remaining within our established tactical framework.

    Our Growth with Income (GWI) portfolio, which tracks most closely the traditional 60/40 stocks/bonds portfolio, is shown below, and compared to our GWI Diversified benchmark.

    LPL Research Growth with Income (GWI) Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA)

    Bar graph comparing LPL Research's tactical asset allocation growth with income to diversified benchmarks.

    Source: LPL Research 4/16/2026
    Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

    What Changed?

    The recent adjustment reflects two related allocation changes:

    • Neutralizing the existing underweight to U.S. small cap value, which results in a modest equity overweight
    • Reducing exposure to mortgage‑backed securities to fund that change

    From a portfolio construction perspective, this shifts the Growth with Income model slightly above benchmark equity exposure while keeping overall portfolio risk well within the intended tactical range. The adjustment reflects an improvement in expected forward equity returns following recent market weakness, coupled with a more restrained outlook for select areas of core fixed income where valuations and technicals appear less supportive.

    This is not a wholesale change in positioning or a reversal of longer standing views. Large cap equities and growth‑oriented exposures remain preferred within U.S. equities, and quality remains a central theme across asset classes. However, as dispersion has increased and valuations have reset modestly, we believe the relative opportunity set for equities has improved compared to mortgage‑backed securities.

    Why Add Small Value Here?

    Our upgrade of small value to neutral is primarily driven by our quantitative analysis work indicating durable technical trends that have developed since the start of the new year. With a path to ending the Iran conflict emerging and related lessening risk of extreme negative outcomes, we expect equities to broadly outperform fixed income. Fundamentally, small value stocks are supported by attractive valuations, bank deregulation, and robust capital investment. In an environment that is likely to get more supportive of risk-taking, eliminating the small cap underweight and moving to an overall overweight equities position seems prudent.

    Why Reduce Mortgage-Backed Securities?

    Our multi-year overweight position in MBS has served us well in terms of relative performance vs. the broad bond market. However, over that time, spreads have tightened meaningfully and remain below longer-term averages, diminishing the relative attractiveness of the asset class. While near-term momentum of lower interest rate volatility and constrained net supply may continue through the first half of the year, already tight spreads and the eventual likelihood that lower mortgage rates will increase prepayment risks may potentially cap returns.

    What Are Our Other Tactical Views?

    Following this update, our Tactical Asset Allocation reflects the following underlying themes:

    • A slight overweight to equity risk expressed through domestic large cap growth
    • An emphasis on balance sheet quality and earnings durability
    • Continued caution in fixed income (MBS and Corporates) amid rate volatility and changing supply and demand dynamics
    • A continued overweight to diversifying strategies / alternative investments, specifically multi-strategy and global macro strategies, funded from cash.

    Why This Is Our First Tactical Trade of the Year

    Coming into 2026, we made a deliberate and somewhat contrarian decision to position portfolios more defensively and with greater diversification than was broadly expected at the time. That decision was grounded in the view that market conditions were unusually complacent and that the range of potential outcomes was wider than reflected in asset prices. While that positioning ultimately proved to be early, it has been beneficial on a relative basis as volatility has increased and correlations have shifted.

    That preparation matters. Because those diversification decisions were made earlier, we are not being forced to de‑risk or reposition under pressure today. Instead, we are able to evaluate opportunities from a position of strength, with the flexibility to adjust risk as expected forward returns improve. This trade reflects that dynamic. It represents a measured re‑engagement of equity risk when conditions became more favorable, rather than a reaction to recent price action.

    Periods like this highlight the risks of being overly active. Tactical investing does not mean frequent trading. Highly reactive decision‑making in volatile environments can easily result in being whipsawed, such as reducing risk near market lows or adding it back after prices have already rebounded. It can also introduce unnecessary transaction costs and tax inefficiencies. We believe restraint, when warranted, is often the most effective expression of tactical discipline. Tactical does not mean frequent. It means nimble, but selective.

    Final Thoughts

    This TAA update reflects the progression of a disciplined process. Preparation came first. Patience followed. Action comes only when the expected benefits justify the risks. We will continue to monitor economic conditions, market developments, and technical signals closely. Volatility can be uncomfortable, but it is also what creates opportunities for investors who remain disciplined and avoid the urge to overreact.

    Important Disclosures

    This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, please consult your financial professional prior to investing.

    Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk.

    Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and does not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

    This material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

    Unless otherwise stated LPL Financial and the third party persons and firms mentioned are not affiliates of each other and make no representation with respect to each other. Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services.

    Asset Class Disclosures –

    International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.

    Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity.

    Municipal bonds are subject and market and interest rate risk and potentially capital gains tax if sold prior to maturity. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Municipal bonds are federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply.

    Preferred stock dividends are paid at the discretion of the issuing company. Preferred stocks are subject to interest rate and credit risk. They may be subject to a call features.

    Alternative investments may not be suitable for all investors and involve special risks such as leveraging the investment, potential adverse market forces, regulatory changes and potentially illiquidity. The strategies employed in the management of alternative investments may accelerate the velocity of potential losses.

    Mortgage backed securities are subject to credit, default, prepayment, extension, market and interest rate risk.

    High yield/junk bonds (grade BB or below) are below investment grade securities, and are subject to higher interest rate, credit, and liquidity risks than those graded BBB and above. They generally should be part of a diversified portfolio for sophisticated investors.

    Precious metal investing involves greater fluctuation and potential for losses.

    The fast price swings of commodities will result in significant volatility in an investor’s holdings.

    This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

    Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency | Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations | Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed | May Lose Value

    For Public Use – Tracking: #1093790

  • Technology Performs Surprisingly Well in the Face of Current Uncertainty

    Best Performing Sector During the Iran Conflict May Surprise You

    Jeff Buchbinder | Chief Equity Strategist
    Last Updated: April 15, 2026

    In what should be a surprise to no one, energy has been one of the better performing sectors since the joint U.S.-Israel airstrikes on military targets in Iran on February 27, although it has given up some ground since a two-week cease fire was announced last week. The S&P 500 is up slightly during this period (+1.2%) while the energy sector has gained 0.4% (price appreciation, excluding dividends).

    What may surprise you is that gain is only good enough for fifth place in the sector rankings since February ended. Technology is on top with a 5.9% gain. Technology beating energy during an oil price spike is surprising enough, but it comes amid selling pressure in the software industry due to fears of artificial intelligence (AI) disruption. The application software group is down about 5% and some widely held names like Salesforce (CRM) and Workday (WDAY) are down more than 10%.

    Technology a Surprising Sector Leader During Iran Conflict

    This bar graph highlights returns for S&P 500 sectors from the end of Februayr to mid April 2026.

    Source: LPL Research, FactSet 04/14/26
    Disclosures: Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

    How Surprising Is This Technology Strength?

    How surprised should we be by this strong performance from technology? Not much, based on the following analysis. Using a hypothetical study of sector performance during oil price spikes over 30%, we find that energy fares best (no surprise). But technology was second in this hypothetical scenario, suggesting that the sector’s relative strength during this period is not an outlier. Technology companies are not a heavy oil users, mitigating the effects of higher oil prices.

    Energy Estimates Have Popped, But the Technology Estimate Increases Aren’t Too Shabby

    The next question you might ask is whether the strong performance by the technology sector is justified by fundamentals. Fueled by the AI buildout, the technology sector will likely grow earnings at least 44% year over year for the soon-to-be-reported first quarter (source: FactSet). But a strong growth outlook didn’t help sector performance from November 2025 through January of this year when technology underperformed.

    We would argue technology strength is justified based on the improvement in the earnings outlook in recent weeks. As shown in the accompanying chart, earnings per share (EPS) estimates for technology in 2026 have increased by more than 6% since March 1. Earnings were expected to grow at a strong clip, but analysts again underestimated the sector’s earnings power. Excellent earnings growth has been anticipated, but we don’t think the market was prepared for a possible 50% increase in technology earnings in the first quarter.

    It’s Not Just Energy Helping to Boost Earnings Estimates

    This bar graph provides the S&P 500 EPS month-to-date change for each sector.

    Source: LPL Research, FactSet 04/14/26S
    Disclosures: Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Estimates may not materialize as predicted and are subject to change. EPS is earnings per share.

    Tech Sector Valuations Have Become Attractive, If Not Compelling

    We also believe recent strength in technology is justified by attractive valuations. The underperformance late last year and early in 2026, coupled with booming earnings growth, brought the sector’s forward (next 12 months) price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) down to near the market at the recent lows. The latest bounce leaves the sector at about an 8% premium to the S&P 500 forward P/E, about in line with the long-term average and still attractive given the strong outlook for earnings growth and robust profit margins.

    Relative P/E of the Technology Sector Has Become Attractive

    This line chart highlights the S&P 500 Technology P/E Ratio relative to the S&P 500.

    Source: LPL Research, FactSet 04/14/26
    Disclosures: Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Estimates may not materialize as predicted and are subject to change.

    Conclusion

    Technology’s leadership during an oil shock is not particularly unusual, nor is it unjustified. History shows technology tends to perform well during periods of sharply rising energy prices, and today’s fundamentals appear consistent with that pattern, though past performance does not guarantee future results. Improving earnings expectations, driven largely by the AI buildout, have helped restore investor confidence after a period of underperformance. At the same time, valuations remain reasonable relative to both the market and the sector’s history. Technology appears well positioned to remain a relative winner if earnings momentum continues and is a strong candidate for an upgrade on a tactical basis.

     

    EPS stands for earnings per share. This metric tells investors how much money a company makes for each of its shares. EPS is one of the most common ways to gauge a company’s profitability.

    Important Disclosures

    This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, please consult your financial professional prior to investing.

    Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk.

    Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and does not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

    This material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

    Unless otherwise stated LPL Financial and the third party persons and firms mentioned are not affiliates of each other and make no representation with respect to each other. Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services.

    Asset Class Disclosures –

    International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.

    Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity.

    Municipal bonds are subject and market and interest rate risk and potentially capital gains tax if sold prior to maturity. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Municipal bonds are federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply.

    Preferred stock dividends are paid at the discretion of the issuing company. Preferred stocks are subject to interest rate and credit risk. They may be subject to a call features.

    Alternative investments may not be suitable for all investors and involve special risks such as leveraging the investment, potential adverse market forces, regulatory changes and potentially illiquidity. The strategies employed in the management of alternative investments may accelerate the velocity of potential losses.

    Mortgage backed securities are subject to credit, default, prepayment, extension, market and interest rate risk.

    High yield/junk bonds (grade BB or below) are below investment grade securities, and are subject to higher interest rate, credit, and liquidity risks than those graded BBB and above. They generally should be part of a diversified portfolio for sophisticated investors.

    Precious metal investing involves greater fluctuation and potential for losses.

    The fast price swings of commodities will result in significant volatility in an investor’s holdings.

    This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

    Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency | Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations | Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed | May Lose Value

    For Public Use – Tracking: #1090739

  • A Deeper Look at Private Credit

    Michael McClain | Alternative Investment Research Analyst and Due Diligence
    Last Updated: April 14, 2026

    Asset-Based Lending

    While headlines related to private credit’s direct lending sector have captivated market participants over the past month, there exists a meaningful investment universe, each with distinct characteristics, under this broader umbrella. Following direct lending, the asset-based lending (ABL) industry has experienced consistent growth and renewed investor interest.

    ABL is a form of lending in which loans are primarily secured by a borrower’s tangible assets rather than by cash flow or earnings. Common forms of collateral include accounts receivable, inventory, equipment, and, in some cases, intellectual property. ABL is most often used by middle-market companies with meaningful working capital needs, seasonal cash flow patterns, or business models where asset values provide more reliable support than earnings. As many ABL borrowers are capital-intensive businesses, there exist working capital gaps and seasonality related to inventory builds that ABL lenders can bridge. This financing is not related to poor operations, rather, how certain firms convert assets into cash over time. The amount a borrower can access is typically determined by a borrowing base, which applies an advance rate to eligible assets and adjusts as collateral values change. From a structural perspective, ABL typically sits senior in the capital structure and benefits from first-priority liens on collateral. This seniority and asset coverage often results in lower loss severity and stronger recovery rates in stressed scenarios compared with unsecured or cash flow-based lending.

    ABL vs. Direct Lending: Risk, Liquidity, and Cycle Sensitivity

    Risk: At a high level, the main difference between direct lending and ABL centers on the type of risk a lender is underwriting. Direct lending focuses on cash-flow lending to middle-market firms, with credit risk primarily assessed on EBITDA, free cash flow, and margin stability. In contrast, ABL considers the age and quality of accounts receivable, liquidation value, and inventory turnover. Meaningful risk will always be present in both; however, the origins of any credit problems will be unique.

    Liquidity: ABL portfolios feature shorter loan durations and self-liquidating structures. In contrast, direct lending is often characterized by longer-dated loans tied to sponsor-backed transactions, where exit timing depends heavily on refinancing or merger and acquisition markets.

    Cycle Sensitivity: Earlier in an economic cycle, direct lending often benefits from expanding leverage capacity, stable or growing EBITDA, and accommodative refinancing conditions. In these environments, cash‑flow‑based underwriting can support returns as sponsors pursue growth and acquisition activity. However, later in a cycle, earnings volatility typically increases, refinancing windows narrow, and forecasting future cash flows becomes more challenging. While ABL may offer slightly lower yields than direct lending, it may provide more downside risk mitigation and greater resilience across economic cycles. As a result, ABL is often viewed as a defensive or stabilizing strategy within the broader private credit market, particularly during periods of economic uncertainty.

    LPL Research Takeaway

    From a portfolio construction standpoint, we believe both direct lending and ABL may provide attractive risk/return profiles for suitable investors and offer complementary characteristics. Neither is inherently superior; rather, investors should consider which private credit sector best aligns with their goals, provides portfolio diversification, and meets their liquidity needs. ABL may serve as a stabilizing complement to traditional direct lending, potentially smoothing volatility, and enhancing downside risk mitigation in late-cycle environments. ABL appears well positioned, not as a replacement for direct lending, but as a differentiated tool within the larger private credit universe.

    Looking ahead, in the same manner that investors consider which public equity or bond styles/sectors are more appropriate at a given point in the market cycle; when investing in private markets, product development has evolved to the point where investors may tailor their desired exposure, rather than relying on one-stop solutions featuring broad private market beta.

    Important Disclosures

    This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, please consult your financial professional prior to investing.

    Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk.

    Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and does not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.

    This material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.

    Unless otherwise stated LPL Financial and the third party persons and firms mentioned are not affiliates of each other and make no representation with respect to each other. Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services.

    Asset Class Disclosures –

    International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.

    Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity.

    Municipal bonds are subject and market and interest rate risk and potentially capital gains tax if sold prior to maturity. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Municipal bonds are federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply.

    Preferred stock dividends are paid at the discretion of the issuing company. Preferred stocks are subject to interest rate and credit risk. They may be subject to a call features.

    Alternative investments may not be suitable for all investors and involve special risks such as leveraging the investment, potential adverse market forces, regulatory changes and potentially illiquidity. The strategies employed in the management of alternative investments may accelerate the velocity of potential losses.

    Mortgage backed securities are subject to credit, default, prepayment, extension, market and interest rate risk.

    High yield/junk bonds (grade BB or below) are below investment grade securities, and are subject to higher interest rate, credit, and liquidity risks than those graded BBB and above. They generally should be part of a diversified portfolio for sophisticated investors.

    Precious metal investing involves greater fluctuation and potential for losses.

    The fast price swings of commodities will result in significant volatility in an investor’s holdings.

    This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

    Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency | Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations | Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed | May Lose Value

    For Public Use – Tracking: #1090738

  • Weekly Market Commentary | Economic Resilience Amid Market Volatility Shocks | April 13, 2026

    The Economy Takes Multiple Shocks in Stride

    Outside of energy commodities, capital markets posted a downbeat March as cross-asset volatility spiked in response to the outbreak of hostilities in the Mideast, and kicked off April in similar, choppy fashion before posting a swift bounce following last Wednesday’s two-week ceasefire agreement. While a positive breakthrough, it may still be a little too early to sound the ‘all clear’ as the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained. Don’t forget, behind today’s headlines, the economy is still dealing with negative trade and immigration shocks and a positive artificial intelligence (AI) shock.

    As we discussed in the latest Economic Navigator, whether volatility becomes lasting is ultimately an economic question. Persistent market stress tends to follow when risks transmit into the real economy through slower growth, shifting inflation dynamics, weakening labor markets, or tighter financing conditions. If volatility remains contained — without a sustained tightening in financial conditions or a measurable deterioration in economic indicators — the macro impact is usually limited. The focus, therefore, should be on monitoring the transmission mechanism from risk to economic activity, not the catalyst itself.

    Talking Points to Set Context

    On Inflation:

    • Headline inflation rose 0.9%, with roughly 80% of the increase directly attributable to energy, and an even larger share when the spike in airfares is included. Core services inflation excluding housing increased just 0.18%, the lowest monthly gain in nearly a year. The underlying trajectory here remains constructive and should not be overlooked.
    • Second‑order effects from the energy shock are beginning to show up in transportation, which carries roughly a 16% weight in the CPI basket.
    • Medical care and used vehicle prices both declined in March. However, we will need a sustained moderation in healthcare inflation before becoming confident that overall inflation will converge to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) target by next year.
    • With the Hormuz chokepoint closed for an extended period, one or two additional firm inflation prints are likely in the near term, driven primarily by transportation services and selected durable‑goods categories. These second‑round effects could add roughly 0.2 percentage points to inflation over the next few months. Against this backdrop, the Fed is clearly on hold for the next several policy meetings.

    On Growth:

    • Q1 economic growth is likely to undershoot consensus. Real consumer spending will not contribute as meaningfully to growth as it has in prior quarters. Real spending was flat in January and rose just 0.1% in February. That said, solid business investment and an increase in government spending should keep Q1 GDP near 2%.
    • Initial unemployment claims remain low, suggesting the labor market is holding steady despite slowing growth. Expect average monthly payroll gains to hover around 50,000 this year. That resilience gives the Fed time to remain patient as it balances its dual mandate. Given the broader macro backdrop, we do not expect rate hikes this year, but as conditions weaken, the next Fed action will likely be a cut.
    • Earlier survey data show purchasing managers reporting stronger new orders, driven by demand for digital transformation, increased reliance on cloud‑based solutions, and rising demand for software platforms. As a result, business investment should be a meaningful contributor to Q1 GDP growth.
    • Corporate profits rose $246.9 billion in Q4, accelerating from a $175.6 billion increase in Q3. Profit growth was particularly strong in durable goods manufacturing, a notable outcome given the presence of tariffs and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

    Bottom line: Economic growth was already moderating before the eruption of conflict in the Middle East. Offsetting that weakness are a stable labor market, solid corporate profit growth, and continued strength in technology‑related investment, which should allow a subset of the corporate sector to support the broader economy amid elevated geopolitical uncertainty.

    Using Global Financial Conditions for Guidance

    Credit spreads and funding conditions are highly valuable for tracking stress in banking and for assessing any damage from geopolitical risks. Credit spreads represent the difference in borrowing costs for firms of different creditworthiness, and in times of stress, credit spreads may widen when default risk increases or credit market functioning is disrupted. Wider spreads may indicate that investors are less willing to hold debt, increasing costs for borrowers to get funding. Tying the previous concept with this, financial stress was not as high during the Russian invasion of Ukraine as the stress induced by fundamental economic factors like high inflation and tighter monetary policy. Bringing it into today’s global energy shock, credit indicators remain below average stress levels in the U.S. but are above average in advanced economies. Funding indicators, which measure how easily financial institutions can fund their activities, have tightened in recent days. In times of stress, funding markets can freeze if participants perceive greater counterparty credit risk or liquidity risk. Rising stress in funding will be important to monitor.

    International Funding Conditions Have Deteriorated More Than U.S.

    Source: LPL Research, Office of Financial Research/Haver Analytics 04/09/26
    Disclosures: Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

    As the creators of the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) index explain, higher geopolitical risk foreshadows lower investment, stock prices, and employment. Higher geopolitical risk is also associated with higher probability of economic disasters and with larger downside risks to the global economy. But will conditions improve like they did in 2022? Guidance comes from these daily updates from the Office of Financial Research (OFR), an independent bureau reporting to the Department of Treasury.

    The OFR Financial Stress Index (OFR FSI) is a daily market-based snapshot of stress in global financial markets and is highlighted above. It is constructed from 33 financial market variables, including yield spreads, valuation measures, and interest rates. The OFR FSI is positive when stress levels are above average, and negative when stress levels are below average. For now, U.S. conditions remain below average stress levels, but bank funding risks are rising.

    Track Dollar Performance for Clues

    The recent appreciation of the U.S. dollar (USD) against most currencies reflects investors’ assessment that the U.S. economy offers a uniquely strong combination of relative growth resilience, higher returns, and financial-system credibility. Compared with other advanced economies, the U.S. continues to exhibit firmer growth, a more flexible labor market, and a Fed committed to price stability. At the same time, global uncertainty has reinforced demand for deep and liquid dollar‑denominated assets, which remain a key source of safe and scalable collateral. As capital flows toward the U.S. for both return and safety — and away from lower‑growth, lower‑yield, or policy‑constrained economies — the dollar strengthens broadly, signaling that global investors continue to rank the U.S. economy as a relative safe haven.

    There are some historical examples that explain why we have dollar appreciation against most currencies during times of global stress. Like the 1990s, the U.S. economy has stronger relative growth and productivity than other major trading partners. The U.S. growth trajectory, for example, is stronger than in Europe and Japan. Stronger corporate profitability and higher returns on invested capital legitimize safe‑haven flows.

    Further, like in the post‑Great Financial Crisis (GFC) era, the dollar remains highly liquid. The dollar is still the primary trade invoicing unit, foreign exchange (FX) hedging benchmark, and global collateral asset. Dollar strength tightens non-U.S. financial conditions disproportionately.

    U.S. Dollar Gained As Safe Haven Status Persists

    Source: LPL Research, Federal Reserve Board 04/08/26
    Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

    Signs of a Regime Shift

    If a dollar regime shift has started, you will observe at least these four signals. First, the USD weakens against both high-beta and safe-haven currencies. Second, U.S. yields rise without FX support. Third, foreign assets outperform in local currency and USD terms. Fourth, volatility rises without a flight into the dollar. Some events may give a false signal. Fed easing cycles could weaken the dollar but may not be sufficient for a real regime shift.

    Given the current path of future easing, let’s end with a few counterintuitive examples of dollar strength amid lower fed funds.

    U.S. rate cuts have supported the dollar at several points in history — not because lower rates are dollar-positive mechanically, but because the cuts improved the U.S. outlook relative to the rest of the world or stabilized global risk. Context is key. Here are the cleanest examples.

    First, is the 1998 Asian and Russian crisis along with Long Term Capital Management (LTCM). The Fed cut rates three times in late 1998 to contain global financial stress. The cuts stabilized U.S. growth while much of Asia and parts of Europe were in crisis. Global investors increased exposure to U.S. assets as the safest large market. The dollar strengthened despite easier policy, especially versus emerging markets (EM), and the euro’s predecessors.

    The second period was the post-dotcom recession in 2001–2002. The Fed aggressively cut rates after the tech bust, and these cuts helped limit the depth of the U.S. downturn. Capital continued to flow into U.S. Treasury markets because alternatives were weaker, especially mid-2001. The dollar stayed strong initially and only weakened later once global growth recovered.

    A third period was during the early phases of the GFC in 2008. In the initial stage of the GFC, the Fed began cutting rates before other central banks. Markets interpreted the cuts as crisis containment, not policy weakness. The dollar rose sharply during late 2008 and 2009, even as rates fell.

    However, cuts tend to weaken the dollar when they signal a sustained disinflation or growth slowdown, a fiscal or institutional breakdown, or a permanent deterioration in U.S. returns relative to the rest of the world.

    Many Composite PMIs Expanded Despite Ongoing Middle East Conflict

    Source: LPL Research, Standard and Poor’s 04/08/26
    Disclosures: Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

    Purchasing Manager Indexes (PMIs) for several important global economies are holding steady in the face of an energy supply crisis. For March, many country PMIs were above 50, implying business expansion. If the Middle East crisis is resolved by the end of April, the global economy will most likely skirt recession. The countries most tenuous are those with weaker fundamentals, such as France, Italy, Russia, and Brazil.

    Conclusion

    A spike in geopolitical risk often foreshadows lower investment, stock prices, and employment. When funding costs or credit availability change, economic effects follow. For now, the risks to growth are to the downside as credit conditions tighten. Shipments of non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft suggest business investment will support Q1 gross domestic product (GDP). Real disposable personal income has supported the consumer so far this year, so we expect Q1 GDP will likely reach 2.1% annualized. The Middle East impacts could be more pronounced in Q2 and Q3 as second-order effects take hold. Nevertheless, we still expect the remaining quarters to hover around 2% on average.

    Inflation is the greater risk. If supply chain pressures remain in place, the annual pace of inflation could temporarily rebound to a high of 3.5% year over year, as measured by the headline price index from Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). However, if the Middle East conflict simmers and energy supply chains improve, we should expect inflation to moderate in the latter half of this year.

    The key question is how geopolitical risks are transmitted into the economy (via trade, energy, confidence, policy, financial conditions), rather than reacting to the risks themselves. Volatility matters only if it changes behavior, cash flows, or policy paths.

    Asset Allocation Insights

    LPL’s Strategic Tactical Asset Allocation Committee (STAAC) maintains its tactical neutral stance on equities. Without a permanent offramp in Iran and given oil prices remain elevated, investors may be well served by bracing for additional volatility. The stock market’s resilient track record during geopolitical crises is reassuring, leaving STAAC to look for opportunities to potentially add equities at lower levels rather than remove equities due to what will likely be short-term market disruption. Technically, the broad market’s long-term uptrend remains intact.

    STAAC’s regional preferences across the U.S., developed international, and emerging markets (EM) are aligned with benchmarks. Attractive valuations in non-U.S. equities are offset by upward pressure in the U.S. dollar, although the Committee continues to watch EM closely for opportunities due to improvements in fundamentals and the technical analysis picture pre-Iran conflict.

    The Committee still maintains a slight preference for growth over value tilt and large caps over small caps. In terms of domestic sectors, communication services remains an overweight, while the Committee continues to debate making a purchase of its shopping list, which includes healthcare, industrials, and technology.

    Within fixed income, the STAAC holds a neutral weight in core bonds, with a slight preference for mortgage-backed securities (MBS) over investment-grade corporates. The Committee believes the risk-reward for core bond sectors (U.S. Treasury, agency MBS, investment-grade corporates) is more attractive than plus sectors. The Committee does not believe adding duration (interest rate sensitivity) at current levels is attractive and remains neutral relative to benchmarks.

    Jeffrey J. Roach, Chief Economist, LPL Financial

    Disclosures

    This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. Any economic forecasts set forth may not develop as predicted and are subject to change. ​

    References to markets, asset classes, and sectors are generally regarding the corresponding market index. Indexes are unmanaged statistical composites and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and do not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. ​

    Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services. LPL Financial doesn’t provide research on individual equities. ​

    All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. ​

    All investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. ​

    US Treasuries may be considered “safe haven” investments but do carry some degree of risk including interest rate, credit, and market risk. Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price. ​

    The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries.

    The PE ratio (price-to-earnings ratio) is a measure of the price paid for a share relative to the annual net income or profit earned by the firm per share. It is a financial ratio used for valuation: a higher PE ratio means that investors are paying more for each unit of net income, so the stock is more expensive compared to one with lower PE ratio. ​

    Earnings per share (EPS) is the portion of a company’s profit allocated to each outstanding share of common stock. EPS serves as an indicator of a company’s profitability. Earnings per share is generally considered to be the single most important variable in determining a share’s price. It is also a major component used to calculate the price-to-earnings valuation ratio. ​

    Precious metal investing involves greater fluctuation and potential for losses.

    The fast price swings in commodities will result in significant volatility in an investor’s holdings. Commodities include increased risks, such as political, economic, and currency instability, and may not be suitable for all investors.​

    The NASDAQ Composite Index measures all NASDAQ domestic and non-U.S. based common stocks listed on The NASDAQ Stock Market. The market value, the last sale price multiplied by total shares outstanding, is calculated throughout the trading day, and is related to the total value of the Index. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.

    The MSCI US Broad Market Index captures broad U.S. equity coverage. The index includes 3,204 constituents across large, mid, small and micro capitalizations, about 99% of the U.S. equity universe. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.

    Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity. Bond values will decline as interest rates rise and bonds are subject to availability and change in price. Private credit carries certain risks — illiquidity, opacity, borrower concentration, and bespoke structures — that distinguish it from corporate bonds and bank loans and complicate its evaluation and oversight.

    All index data from FactSet or Bloomberg.

    This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.

    Not Insured by FDIC/NCUA or Any Other Government Agency | Not Bank/Credit Union Guaranteed | Not Bank/Credit Union Deposits or Obligations | May Lose Value

    RES-0006894-0326 | For Public Use | Tracking #1091677  (Exp. 04/2027)