October 02, 2026 | LPL Research
LPL Research provides its Weekly Market Performance for the week of September 28, 2026. Stocks finished a choppy week slightly lower as rising Treasury yields continued to weigh on sentiment, countering some upbeat artificial intelligence (AI) headlines. However, a softer-than-expected September jobs report eased rate hike worries and helped stocks pare losses on Friday. The S&P 500 slipped 0.35% in September, a modest loss that hid weak breadth beneath the surface, and closed the third quarter with a 2.3% gain. Overseas, European stocks edged lower this week on weakness in bank shares, while Asian markets ended mixed. Meanwhile, oil drifted lower as Middle East exports recovered toward pre-war levels, and gold slipped alongside a stronger dollar.
Stock Index Performance
| Index | Week-Ending | One Month | Year to Date |
| S&P 500 | -0.29% | 0.71% | 12.79% |
| Dow Jones Industrial | -1.25% | -3.55% | 6.48% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 0.40% | 3.65% | 16.93% |
| Russell 2000 | -0.12% | -4.03% | 14.20% |
| MSCI EAFE | -1.68% | -3.06% | 8.08% |
| MSCI EM | -0.73% | 0.50% | 23.35% |
S&P 500 Index Sectors
| Sector | Week-Ending | One Month | Year to Date |
| Materials | -1.28% | -6.29% | 8.43% |
| Utilities | 0.79% | -6.14% | -6.69% |
| Industrials | -0.25% | -1.34% | 9.65% |
| Consumer Staples | -1.93% | -4.05% | 4.00% |
| Real Estate | -1.58% | -5.79% | 2.83% |
| Health Care | -2.80% | -3.82% | 7.22% |
| Financials | -2.39% | -6.91% | -2.24% |
| Consumer Discretionary | -0.19% | -3.10% | -5.14% |
| Information Technology | 1.37% | 6.98% | 30.10% |
| Communication Services | -1.70% | 3.22% | 3.54% |
| Energy | 1.59% | -2.38% | 40.59% |
Fixed Income and Commodities
| Indexes and Commodities | Week-Ending | One Month | Year to Date |
| Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate | -0.39% | -2.17% | -2.66% |
| Bloomberg Credit | -0.53% | -2.28% | -2.96% |
| Bloomberg Munis | -0.01% | -3.36% | -3.65% |
| Bloomberg High Yield | -0.86% | -2.54% | -0.07% |
| Oil | -1.48% | 0.03% | 58.55% |
| Natural Gas | -4.97% | 2.74% | -17.61% |
| Gold | -3.22% | -5.36% | -3.99% |
| Silver | -5.87% | -7.34% | -15.55% |
Source: LPL Research, Bloomberg 10/2/26 @ 3:18 p.m. ET
Disclosures: Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.
U.S. and International Equities
U.S. Equities: The S&P 500 finished the week slightly lower after another jittery week on Wall Street. This week brought the end of September and the third quarter where the equity benchmark finished the month with a slight 0.35% loss, trimming a 2.3% quarterly gain. A resilient index-level result for September masked a month marked by weak breadth. More shares falling than rising dragged the equal-weight variant of the benchmark over 5% lower, as oil and bond market volatility drove sentiment for stocks. The narrative and market drivers were broadly unchanged over the past week. After ending last week on a bright note, stocks were back on the defensive as Treasury yields continued to march higher, offsetting choppy —but lower — crude prices as markets weighed stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations and some upbeat supply-related headlines. However, stocks pared losses on Friday after a softer-than-expected September payrolls report drove rate hike expectations lower following Thursday’s hot prices paid figure in the ISM Manufacturing data release.
Breadth was lackluster for most of the week, but some upbeat artificial intelligence (AI) headlines helped cushion major averages. Positive readthroughs from Micron Technology’s (MU) beat and raise quarter boosted confidence in the AI trade, providing a tailwind for the big tech space, although a cheaper model release from Anthropic and a high-profile acquisition by Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) were also among highlights.
International Equities: European equities hugged the weekly flatline through Wednesday trading but ultimately ended lower after a weak Thursday session. Banking shares were pressured lower as elevated regional bond yields fueled some widening in high-yield credit spreads, creating caution toward the heavyweight financials sector. After posting its first monthly loss since March and a small quarterly drop, the STOXX 600 Index managed to claw back part of its weekly drop as the oversold European benchmark neared key technical levels after posting its sixth loss in the last eight weeks.
Asia-Pacific equities ended mostly higher this week amid scattered holiday closures. Japan’s Nikkei was among outperformers with tech takeaways and ex-dividend trading supporting buying, while the fellow tech-leaning market of Taiwan posted multiple fresh records in its weekly advance. South Korea fell in a four-day week while mainland China also lagged as the homegrown tech narrative received a dent from reports that local firms may be able to buy NVIDIA’s (NVDA) new chip and mixed policy support headlines. For the third quarter, major exchanges ended mostly higher, with South Korea and mainland China lagging. India sold off, breaking below key support levels.
Fixed Income, Currency, and Commodity Markets
Fixed Income: Core bonds, measured by the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index ended lower for the fifth straight week. The ongoing Treasury market rout has been brutal, but the silver lining is that higher starting yields have materially improved the forward return outlook, giving most fixed income sectors enough income to absorb another meaningful rise in rates while preserving considerably more upside if yields decline.
The Treasury reset has materially improved the starting point for fixed income. Yields from the two-year to the 30-year range from 4.8% to 5.6%, and these are no longer ordinary post-2008 yields. Investors are being paid historically meaningful income without immediately reaching into lower-quality credit, and the 12-month return profile is asymmetric in investors’ favor. Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and investment-grade corporates show a similar pattern, with significantly more upside from falling rates than downside from moderately higher rates. Plus, breakeven rates provide a meaningful cushion against additional yield increases of roughly 0.90 to 0.99%.
The opportunity is in income, not an aggressive duration call. Current yields allow investors to generate respectable returns without requiring a Treasury rally. We favor high-quality short-to-intermediate bonds, which offer enough duration to benefit if growth slows while limiting exposure to fiscal, supply, and term-premium risks concentrated at the long end. The sell-off has been painful for existing bondholders, but it has improved the forward-looking math. At current yields, most core fixed income sectors do not need rates to fall to produce respectable returns, and rates still have room to rise before the higher-quality sectors move into negative-return territory over the next 12 months.
Commodities and Currencies: The broader commodities complex traded lower for the second week in a row, but capped solid monthly and quarterly gains. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures edged lower as reports continued to highlight Mideast exports recovering toward pre-war levels, mostly overshadowing a cloudy U.S.-Iran negotiation outlook. Late-week reports that leaders of the Group of Seven nations agreed to release diesel stocks to help alleviate U.S. pressure also pushed prices lower. Gold prices traded lower, weighed down by a stronger dollar and Treasury yields extending their recent rise, offsetting pared-back rate hike expectations. Copper also dropped, while silver faced steeper losses. In currencies, weakness in the euro was the biggest tailwind for the U.S. Dollar Index as the Eurozone’s shared currency fell amid French fiscal worries.
Economic Weekly Roundup
Firms Want Workers Who Make Stuff. Key talking points from the September payrolls release:
- Demand for workers is concentrated in industries that make stuff, and less so in services.
- August payrolls were supported by job creation in construction, manufacturing, and healthcare. Suppressing job growth were the information, financial services, and government sectors. This illustrates the new economy.
- Despite the uptick in unemployment to 4.2%, the labor market is still operating in a comfortable range.
- In recent months, including this latest observation, wages are not keeping up with inflation. Those in the lower part of the K-shaped economy will suffer as real wages shrink.
- As labor force growth stagnates, the breakeven rate of employment growth, which is the pace needed to keep the unemployment rate steady, has declined. Today’s payroll numbers are approaching that breakeven rate.
Bottom Line: We are seeing the tension between the goods-producing sectors that support the AI boom and the services-producing sectors that are feeling the impact of technological change. Given the overall softness of the labor market, the likelihood of two Fed hikes is getting lower.
The Week Ahead
The following economic data is slated for the week ahead:
- Monday: S&P Global U.S. Services and Composite PMI (Sep final), ISM Services Index (Sep)
- Tuesday: ADP Weekly Employment Change (Sep 19), Trade Balance (Aug)
- Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications (Oct 2), New York Fed One-Year Inflation Expectations (Sep), FOMC Meeting Minutes (Sep 16), Consumer Credit (Aug)
- Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 3), Continuing Claims (Sep 26), Wholesale Trade Sales (Aug), Wholesale Inventories (Aug final)
- Friday: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report (Oct preliminary)
Important Disclosures
This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, please consult your financial professional prior to investing.
Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk.
Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and does not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
This material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.
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Asset Class Disclosures –
International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity.
Municipal bonds are subject and market and interest rate risk and potentially capital gains tax if sold prior to maturity. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Municipal bonds are federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply.
Preferred stock dividends are paid at the discretion of the issuing company. Preferred stocks are subject to interest rate and credit risk. They may be subject to a call features.
Alternative investments may not be suitable for all investors and involve special risks such as leveraging the investment, potential adverse market forces, regulatory changes and potentially illiquidity. The strategies employed in the management of alternative investments may accelerate the velocity of potential losses.
Mortgage backed securities are subject to credit, default, prepayment, extension, market and interest rate risk.
High yield/junk bonds (grade BB or below) are below investment grade securities, and are subject to higher interest rate, credit, and liquidity risks than those graded BBB and above. They generally should be part of a diversified portfolio for sophisticated investors.
Precious metal investing involves greater fluctuation and potential for losses.
The fast price swings of commodities will result in significant volatility in an investor’s holdings.
This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.
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