LPL Research
Last Updated: March 20, 2026
LPL Research provides its Weekly Market Performance for the week of March 16, 2026. Markets navigated a choppy week marked by ongoing geopolitical tensions and shifting rate expectations amid a flurry of global central bank decisions. U.S. equities showed resilience early on but ultimately slipped as inflation concerns, elevated energy prices, and hawkish Federal Reserve takeaways weighed on sentiment. International markets faced similar headwinds, with European equities pressured by rising rates and higher crude prices, while Asian markets ended mixed amid a few different local developments. In fixed income, global front‑end yields surged as markets reassessed the path of rate cuts, while commodities remained volatile with energy prices rising and precious metals declining.
Stock Index Performance
| Index | Week-Ending | One Month | Year to Date |
| S&P 500 | -1.92% | -5.86% | -4.98% |
| Dow Jones Industrial | -2.21% | -8.25% | -5.27% |
| Nasdaq Composite | -2.17% | -5.51% | -6.96% |
| Russell 2000 | -1.95% | -8.71% | -2.02% |
| MSCI EAFE | -2.96% | -10.92% | -2.69% |
| MSCI EM | -2.10% | -10.80% | 1.64% |
S&P 500 Index Sectors
| Sector | Week-Ending | One Month | Year to Date |
| Materials | -4.75% | -11.86% | 2.40% |
| Utilities | -4.76% | -3.74% | 4.15% |
| Industrials | -2.26% | -9.32% | 3.51% |
| Consumer Staples | -4.14% | -6.59% | 5.48% |
| Real Estate | -3.69% | -6.64% | 1.19% |
| Health Care | -3.26% | -7.67% | -6.68% |
| Financials | 0.30% | -6.72% | -10.89% |
| Consumer Discretionary | -2.78% | -7.50% | -10.60% |
| Information Technology | -1.88% | -5.14% | -8.47% |
| Communication Services | -1.91% | -4.65% | -4.87% |
| Energy | 3.34% | 8.68% | 32.55% |
Fixed Income and Commodities
| Indexes and Commodities | Week-Ending | One Month | Year to Date |
| Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate | 0.28% | -1.07% | 0.12% |
| Bloomberg Credit | 0.58% | -1.60% | -0.36% |
| Bloomberg Munis | 0.03% | -1.08% | 0.76% |
| Bloomberg High Yield | 0.08% | -1.34% | -0.43% |
| Oil | 0.00% | 48.09% | 71.23% |
| Natural Gas | -0.61% | 2.13% | -15.57% |
| Gold | -10.49% | -12.04% | 4.01% |
| Silver | -15.75% | -19.79% | -5.25% |
Source: LPL Research, Bloomberg 3/20/26 @3:23 p.m. ET
Disclosures: Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.
U.S. and International Equities
U.S. Equities: Major domestic benchmarks, although lower, continued to display some resilience over the last five days amid quite a few moving pieces originating from at home and abroad. At the forefront, inflation and economic growth jitters from still elevated energy prices kept a lid on equities, however, the S&P 500 received some support from optimism that additional tankers will pass the Strait of Hormuz after two vessels traversed the waterway last weekend with more attempts reportedly queued up. Wall Street bulls held the line to post back-to-back gains with positioning and sentiment dynamics, a rate reprieve, as well as the favorable earnings backdrop flagged for the early week upside. Nonetheless, lingering geopolitical overhangs pressured equities back below the weekly unchanged point in conjunction with Bureau of Labor Statistics data indicating producer price pressures increased more than expected last month. Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut expectations were also pushed out to 2027 on hawkish-leaning takeaways from Wednesday’s decision. Simultaneously, regional Iranian attacks on key energy facilities easily offset de-escalatory remarks from President Trump and Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, before the equity slide was accelerated Friday by additional U.S. military assets reportedly heading to the region.
International Equities: Volatility in European equities remained elevated for another week of trading as the STOXX 600 dropped just over 3.75%. Crude oil posting another week of gains dragged on the oil- and natural gas-sensitive region, while central bank takeaways also dominated investor attention. Following Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) hold, remarks from ECB officials that a rate hike could be considered soon if price pressures continue to build was among standout headlines, while upward pressure on rates exacerbated the risk-off tone over the last two days of the week. The Swiss National Bank and Bank of England also fulfilled expectations of no change, as well as Sweden’s Riksbank.
In Asia, geopolitical developments remained in focus in addition to a few regional developments, but major exchanges broadly ended mixed. Greater China was among laggards as tech names faced pressure from muddy artificial intelligence profit worries after Tencent curtailed buybacks and offered little insight into their agentic AI profitability strategy. Plus, the People’s Bank of China held one- and five-year loan prime rates unchanged, after rate cut bets fizzled following strong activity figures earlier in the week. Japanese shares reversed gains on Thursday after the Bank of Japan cited the geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East when holding rates unchanged. Elsewhere, South Korea held a weekly jump from authorities’ announcement of restrictions on publicly traded firms listing certain subsidiaries to help enhance shareholder value, while unemployment hit a three-month low.
Fixed Income, Currency, and Commodity Markets
Fixed Income: Core bonds, measured by the Bloomberg Aggregate Index, traded lower after reversing a week-to-date gain as U.S. Treasury yields — alongside developed market bond yields — moved sharply higher to end the week, with 10‑year U.K. Gilts at 4.93%, the highest level since 2008.
In the U.S., the Treasury yield curve has bear‑flattened aggressively this week. The 2s/10s curve sits near the flattest level since last July and down from its recent peak of 73 bps on February 5. The flattening is being driven by a front‑end selloff: the 2‑year yield has risen 42 bps since February 5, while the 10‑year is down only 12 bps. Markets have shifted from pricing in two-and-a-half Fed rate cuts for 2026 to now assigning a non‑trivial probability of rate hikes this year. Markets have also priced in the end of the global rate‑cutting cycle, with rate hike probabilities increasing across all major developed markets. Higher front‑end yields are being driven by inflation concerns linked to the conflict in Iran. U.S. two‑year and five‑year TIPS breakevens have become unanchored and continue to rise, though longer‑term inflation expectations remain well‑contained. With long‑term inflation expectations still stable — and with the bar for rate hikes still high, as reinforced by Chair Powell earlier this week — market pricing may be overly hawkish, in our view. Front‑end yields globally now appear too elevated. This move provides another opportunity for cash investors to extend excess cash out a few years (but not beyond five years) to take advantage of the backup in yields.
Commodities and Currencies: The broader commodities complex remained volatile but ultimately ended the week moderately lower. Energy prices continued to take center stage with both West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude gaining ground as Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and regional attacks on major gas fields and broader facilities continued. Mixed headlines around the U.S.-Iran conflict kept trading choppy with Brent briefly trading near $120, before paring gains after President Trump stated the U.S. will look to end the conflict soon while Israeli Prime Minister stated Iranian uranium enrichment and missile manufacturing capabilities were now inoperable. However, little signs of de-escalation on Friday left prices higher and continued to widen the spread between the global benchmark Brent and North America’s WTI crude. The overall commodities complex was dented by a notable slide in gold and silver prices, while grains also declined. The dollar weakened over the last five days.
Economic Weekly Roundup
March FOMC Meeting: For obvious reasons, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) struck the phrase “signs of stabilization” from Wednesday afternoon’s statement as they maintain a holding pattern.
- The unemployment rate may no longer “show some signs of stabilization” but at least it’s been little changed in recent months. We expect the weakening labor market will likely be more of a risk in coming months, giving the Fed room to cut rates later this year.
- The 2026 core inflation forecasts were revised up to 2.7% from 2.5% in the latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). The risk here is that disruptions within global oil supply last longer than expected. If economies must deal with elevated petroleum prices now through the summer, the economic impact will be larger than currently priced today.
- Growth for both 2026 and 2027 were also revised higher, limiting the stagflation risks according to Fed officials.
- The expected terminal interest rate was raised up to 3.1% from 3.0%, revealing policy makers’ concerns that inflation is getting embedded into the framework of the economy.
The upward revision to 2026 growth is misleading if not presented in context. The weaker growth in Q4 2025 showed the economy is on feeble footing than originally estimated. The likely productivity boost from AI could not come at a better time, if it can be the antidote to slower population growth, shrinking labor force, and persistent services inflation.
The Week Ahead
The following economic data is slated for the week ahead:
- Monday: Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Feb), Construction Spending (Jan)
- Tuesday: ADP Weekly Employment Change (Mar 7), Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity (Mar), Nonfarm Productivity (4Q final), Unit Labor Costs (4Q final), S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing, Services, and Composite PMIs (Mar preliminary), Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar), Richmond Fed Business Conditions (Mar)
- Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications (Mar 20), Import and Export Price Indexes (Feb), Current Account Balance (4Q)
- Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 21), Continuing Claims (Mar 14), Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity (Mar)
- Friday: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report (Mar final), Kansas City Fed Services Activity (Mar)
Important Disclosures
This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, please consult your financial professional prior to investing.
Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk.
Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and does not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
This material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.
Unless otherwise stated LPL Financial and the third party persons and firms mentioned are not affiliates of each other and make no representation with respect to each other. Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services.
Asset Class Disclosures –
International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity.
Municipal bonds are subject and market and interest rate risk and potentially capital gains tax if sold prior to maturity. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Municipal bonds are federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply.
Preferred stock dividends are paid at the discretion of the issuing company. Preferred stocks are subject to interest rate and credit risk. They may be subject to a call features.
Alternative investments may not be suitable for all investors and involve special risks such as leveraging the investment, potential adverse market forces, regulatory changes and potentially illiquidity. The strategies employed in the management of alternative investments may accelerate the velocity of potential losses.
Mortgage backed securities are subject to credit, default, prepayment, extension, market and interest rate risk.
High yield/junk bonds (grade BB or below) are below investment grade securities, and are subject to higher interest rate, credit, and liquidity risks than those graded BBB and above. They generally should be part of a diversified portfolio for sophisticated investors.
Precious metal investing involves greater fluctuation and potential for losses.
The fast price swings of commodities will result in significant volatility in an investor’s holdings.
This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.
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