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Last Updated: March 13, 2026
LPL Research provides its Weekly Market Performance for the week of March 9, 2026. Capital markets remained volatile for another week as geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East and rising oil prices continued to pressure global sentiment, yet U.S. equities remained relatively resilient with somewhat measured declines. Energy stocks again led the S&P 500, while semiconductors provided key support amid strong earnings takeaways. International markets were mostly lower, with Europe weighed down by stagflation concerns and Asia dented by rising oil prices and credit market jitters. Meanwhile, bond markets saw yields rise and curves flatten as investors pushed out rate‑cut expectations, and crude oil moved higher amid supply disruptions.
Stock Index Performance
| Index | Week-Ending | One Month | Year to Date |
| S&P 500 | -1.28% | -2.67% | -2.80% |
| Dow Jones Industrial | -1.77% | -5.74% | -2.92% |
| Nasdaq Composite | -1.13% | -1.83% | -4.76% |
| Russell 2000 | -1.75% | -6.25% | -0.03% |
| MSCI EAFE | -1.66% | -7.28% | 0.65% |
| MSCI EM | -0.52% | -6.71% | 4.22% |
S&P 500 Index Sectors
| Sector | Week-Ending | One Month | Year to Date |
| Materials | -1.38% | -7.60% | 7.71% |
| Utilities | 0.85% | 1.04% | 9.86% |
| Industrials | -2.89% | -5.38% | 6.22% |
| Consumer Staples | -0.16% | -4.73% | 10.11% |
| Real Estate | -1.12% | -2.71% | 5.44% |
| Health Care | -1.52% | -4.63% | -3.05% |
| Financials | -3.11% | -5.24% | -10.86% |
| Consumer Discretionary | -2.86% | -3.08% | -7.92% |
| Information Technology | -0.61% | -1.65% | -6.52% |
| Communication Services | -1.30% | -0.62% | -3.09% |
| Energy | 2.47% | 6.09% | 28.71% |
Fixed Income and Commodities
| Indexes and Commodities | Week-Ending | One Month | Year to Date |
| Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate | -0.79% | -1.29% | -0.03% |
| Bloomberg Credit | -1.20% | -1.91% | -0.69% |
| Bloomberg Munis | -0.69% | -0.91% | 0.71% |
| Bloomberg High Yield | -0.39% | -0.86% | -0.13% |
| Oil | 7.18% | 54.92% | 69.68% |
| Natural Gas | -1.63% | -3.36% | -14.98% |
| Gold | -2.50% | 0.00% | 16.74% |
| Silver | -4.28% | 4.53% | 12.92% |
Source: LPL Research, Bloomberg 3/13/26 @3:10 p.m. ET
Disclosures: Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.
U.S. and International Equities
U.S. Equities: Much like last week, geopolitical developments out of the Middle East and the direction of crude oil prices guided market sentiment in volatile trading. Nonetheless, also similar to last week, U.S. equities continued to hang tough with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both trading just over 1% lower. Tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively halted, forcing producers in the Persian Gulf to shut or reduce production — exacerbated by Iranian attacks on regional targets in the latter half of the week. Worries of a global energy supply crunch drove oil prices and Treasury yields higher. Inflation worries pushed out rate cut bets — acting as a headwind for stocks — with releases of emergency reserves doing little to sway investor sentiment. Dovish-leaning remarks on the conflict from inside the Beltway early this week cushioned returns after President Trump stated that the U.S. campaign was ahead of schedule relative to its initial four- to five-week timeframe, although no immediate off-ramp has been presented yet. In-line inflation data and better-than-expected personal spending data briefly lifted risk sentiment Friday, before stocks slipped back below the flatline as investors digested a sluggish revision to fourth quarter economic growth and reports of additional U.S. military assets and personnel shipping off to the Middle East.
Energy stocks led the S&P 500 again this week, while technology provided notable under-the-radar support. Semiconductor shares were second only to energy among sub-industry groups thanks to well-received earnings from Oracle (ORCL) with artificial intelligence (AI) overspending and cash flow angst partially defused after executives stated some cloud customers will prepay for chips or supply their own.
International Equities: The pan-European STOXX 600 Index ended moderately lower on the week. Stagflation concerns remained center stage as inflation and economic growth jitters collided. The combination could constrain the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England from easing, a dynamic underlined by ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir, who stated that rate hikes may be closer than initially thought. Nonetheless, the energy-sensitive region hugged the flatline with some support from the emergency oil release. Simultaneously, banking shares were a drag after Deutsche Bank flagged a $30 billion exposure to private credit amid ongoing nervousness around the space.
Meanwhile, Asian equities ended mostly lower as the effect of higher oil prices rippled across the globe. However, within regional developments, Japan was weighed down by banking shares as rate hike hopes for this summer were offset by credit concerns from the U.S. spilling across the Pacific. Japanese markets also drew attention to end the week amid rising yields and a weaker yen. South Korea continued to face outsized swings in both directions as chipmaking and AI-related shares remained volatile, while Taiwan was a relative outperformer with just a modest loss. Mainland China led the region with a slight gain, padded by Tuesday’s rally on Tencent’s new AI agent launch. Australia was also among underperformers as inflation expectations hit their highest level since 2023.
Fixed Income, Currency, and Commodity Markets
Fixed Income: Core bonds, measured by the Bloomberg Aggregate Index, traded lower over the last five days.
Since the start of the Iran conflict, Treasury yields are higher across the yield curve by roughly 30 basis points. The yield curve has also flattened, with the 10‑year and 2‑year spread near its flattest level since last December. Selling pressure at the front end of the curve has pushed out rate-cut expectations, with markets fully pricing in the next cut in 2027. The bond market sell-off has been global, with markets seemingly expecting a new rate-hiking campaign by the European Central Bank (nearly two hikes) and the Bank of England (almost one full hike) this year. Fundamentally, Treasury yields represent the expected fed funds rate over the life of the security, plus a term premia. So, the sell-off in the front end of the U.S. Treasury curve is likely limited as it’s unlikely the Fed will reverse course and start to hike rates later this year. It’s more likely that the Fed would delay cuts into next year or when there is further clarity from the Iran conflict. So, if markets fully price out rate cuts this year, the 2-year yield in particular will be limited with how much higher its yield could go. Longer maturities, however, may drift higher due to rising term premia and less‑certain policy expectations further out.
Commodities and Currencies: The broader commodities complex traded higher this week after oscillating around the unchanged point. Crude oil remained the focal point not just within commodities but across capital markets, with both West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent futures trading higher over the second week of the conflict in the Middle East. Tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz remained halted and jitters of a supply squeeze kept upward pressure on prices despite an emergency release of 400 million barrels and U.S. plans for protection and insurance. However, these bright spots were overshadowed by worries of how much of the release can get to the market in time and the two-week delay in U.S. action, respectively, and the fact that producers have slashed or stopped production as a result of the blockade filling storage facilities and Iranian strikes around the region. Elsewhere, gold traded lower on waning rate cut expectations and a stronger U.S. dollar, which strengthened as investors continued to favor the greenback as a safe haven in their search for liquidity amid few signs of an offramp for the conflict. The euro, yen, and pound all weakened.
Economic Weekly Roundup
The Fed has a dilemma. Annual core inflation accelerated to 3.1% in January from 3.0% the previous month. We expect further acceleration in next month’s release.
- The Fed’s preferred inflation metric, Personal Consumption Expenditures, shows the economy is still battling inflation at the start of the new year. And a major downward revision to 0.7% for Q4 growth complicates things for policymakers.
- Headline inflation rose 0.3% from the previous month. Investors need to see monthly prints stay consistently in the range of 0.1% and 0.2% before they can realistically believe inflation risks are mostly contained.
- Core services ex housing (supercore) inflation accelerated to 3.5%, the fastest pace since February 2025 and driven by health care and financial services. These categories should show signs of letting up later this year.
Bottom Line: Underlying inflation pressures will continue to boil under the surface and next month’s print will also be elevated, impacted by the war in the Middle East. We expect the Fed to highlight the uncertainty on both sides of the mandate. Inflation will be impacted by the war and unemployment will be impacted by the disruptions in the labor market. Expect to see some important revisions in the upcoming Summary of Economic Projections next week.
The Week Ahead
The following economic data is slated for the week ahead:
- Monday: Empire Manufacturing (Mar), Industrial Production (Feb), Manufacturing (SIC) Production (Feb), Capacity Utilization (Feb), NAHB Housing Market Index (Mar)
- Tuesday: ADP Weekly Employment Change (Feb 28), New York Fed Services Business Activity (Mar), Leading Index (Feb), Pending Home Sales (Feb), Bloomberg U.S. Economic Survey (Mar)
- Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications (Mar 13), Headline and Core PPI (Feb), Factory Orders (Jan), Durable Goods Orders (Jan final), Capital Goods Orders and Shipments (Jan final), FOMC Rate Decision (Mar 18), Total Net TIC Flows (Jan), Net Long-term TIC Flows (Jan)
- Thursday: Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 14), Continuing Claims (Mar 7), Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (Mar), New Home Sales (Jan), Wholesale Inventories (Jan final), Wholesale Trade Sales (Jan), Household Change in Net Worth (4Q), Building Permits (Jan final)
- Friday: No economic releases scheduled
Important Disclosures
This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors. To determine which investment(s) may be appropriate for you, please consult your financial professional prior to investing.
Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk.
Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Index performance is not indicative of the performance of any investment and does not reflect fees, expenses, or sales charges. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results.
This material was prepared by LPL Financial, LLC. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however LPL Financial makes no representation as to its completeness or accuracy.
Unless otherwise stated LPL Financial and the third party persons and firms mentioned are not affiliates of each other and make no representation with respect to each other. Any company names noted herein are for educational purposes only and not an indication of trading intent or a solicitation of their products or services.
Asset Class Disclosures –
International investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and political instability and may not be suitable for all investors. These risks are often heightened for investments in emerging markets.
Bonds are subject to market and interest rate risk if sold prior to maturity.
Municipal bonds are subject and market and interest rate risk and potentially capital gains tax if sold prior to maturity. Interest income may be subject to the alternative minimum tax. Municipal bonds are federally tax-free but other state and local taxes may apply.
Preferred stock dividends are paid at the discretion of the issuing company. Preferred stocks are subject to interest rate and credit risk. They may be subject to a call features.
Alternative investments may not be suitable for all investors and involve special risks such as leveraging the investment, potential adverse market forces, regulatory changes and potentially illiquidity. The strategies employed in the management of alternative investments may accelerate the velocity of potential losses.
Mortgage backed securities are subject to credit, default, prepayment, extension, market and interest rate risk.
High yield/junk bonds (grade BB or below) are below investment grade securities, and are subject to higher interest rate, credit, and liquidity risks than those graded BBB and above. They generally should be part of a diversified portfolio for sophisticated investors.
Precious metal investing involves greater fluctuation and potential for losses.
The fast price swings of commodities will result in significant volatility in an investor’s holdings.
This research material has been prepared by LPL Financial LLC.
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